Celta Vigo vs Real Betis

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 15:15 UTC+3 • Round 10 • ⛅ 17.3°C, 2 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	79%	42.1%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	12	70%	70.4%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	Yes	83%	53%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	49.6%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	2-1	63%	7.3%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.3%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.62 – 1.26 Real Betis · expected total 2.88

🧠 Match Preview

Celta Vigo host Real Betis in La Liga's tenth round on Sunday, with the two clubs arriving in very different moods. Betis sit third on 19 points from 8 games, while Celta are ninth on 8 points from 8 — a gap that frames the visitors as the form side despite playing away.

The model, though, leans the other way. It makes Celta the home tip at 42.1 percent with a confidence of 79, and the double chance covering a home win or draw lands at 70.4 percent. That reflects a Betis run of WWDWW colliding with a Celta sequence of DWLDD, and a home attack rated slightly higher: 1.6165 expected goals against Betis's 1.2603, with recent xG at 1.63 for Celta and 1.75 for Betis. Both squads are heavily depleted, with eleven names listed on each side.

For bettors, the goals markets look lively. Both teams to score is priced at 53 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 49.6 percent, and the top correct-score line is 2-1 at 9.29, followed by 1-0 at 7.97 and 2-0 at 7.37. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 carries a 53.3 percent probability against an expected 10.1.

The honest caveat is that no bookmaker odds are quoted here, so the value case rests on the model's numbers alone — and a 42.1 percent home win is far from dominant. The recent head-to-head is tight, with three of the last five meetings drawn, including two 1-1 scorelines. Treat the home tip as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Celta Vigo

Form (last 5)

DElche (A) 0–0 · 11/10/2026 WRacing Santander (H) 5–0 · 19/09/2026LOmonia Nicosia (A) 0–1 · 16/09/2026DMalaga (H) 1–1 · 13/09/2026 DGetafe (A) 1–1 · 07/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)0.80

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.43

xG against (recent avg)0.48

Elo strength rating1551

Players out11

Real Betis

Form (last 5)

WFC Porto (H) 3–2 · 14/10/2026 WOsasuna (H) 5–2 · 11/10/2026 DDeportivo La Coruna (A) 1–1 · 20/09/2026 WGetafe (H) 1–0 · 17/09/2026 WVillarreal (A) 2–1 · 14/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.10

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)1.75

xG against (recent avg)1.60

Elo strength rating1649

Players out11

Celta VigoReal Betis

DElche (A) 0–0 · 11/10/2026 WRacing Santander (H) 5–0 · 19/09/2026LOmonia Nicosia (A) 0–1 · 16/09/2026DMalaga (H) 1–1 · 13/09/2026 DGetafe (A) 1–1 · 07/09/2026

WFC Porto (H) 3–2 · 14/10/2026 WOsasuna (H) 5–2 · 11/10/2026 DDeportivo La Coruna (A) 1–1 · 20/09/2026 WGetafe (H) 1–0 · 17/09/2026 WVillarreal (A) 2–1 · 14/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.00

1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)

0.80

1.10

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.43

1.75

xG against (recent avg)

0.48

1.60

Elo strength rating

1551

1649

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Celta Vigo

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

1/6

Scored

3/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Real Betis

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 7

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — La Liga

Celta Vigo

Best defence (0.80 conceded/game) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) Best clean sheets (4)

Real Betis

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Celta Vigo at home · Real Betis away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Celta Vigo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L

W 1

D 1

L 2

Played4

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets1

Failed to score1

Real Betis (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played4

Goals scored (avg)1.50

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Celta Vigo (home)Real Betis (away)

W 1

D 1

L 2

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.80

1.50

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

1.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1

7.3%

1–0

6.3%

2–0

5.8%

3–1

3.9%

3–0

3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Celta Vigo 5 wins · 4 draws · Real Betis 1 win · avg 2.9 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
15 Mar 2026	Real Betis	1–1	Celta Vigo	La Liga
27 Aug 2025	Celta Vigo	1–1	Real Betis	La Liga
08 Feb 2025	Celta Vigo	3–2	Real Betis	La Liga
10 Nov 2024	Real Betis	2–2	Celta Vigo	La Liga
12 Apr 2024	Real Betis	2–1	Celta Vigo	La Liga
03 Jan 2024	Celta Vigo	2–1	Real Betis	La Liga
04 Feb 2023	Real Betis	3–4	Celta Vigo	La Liga
02 Oct 2022	Celta Vigo	1–0	Real Betis	La Liga
20 Mar 2022	Celta Vigo	0–0	Real Betis	La Liga
02 Jan 2022	Real Betis	0–2	Celta Vigo	La Liga

📈 Recent Form

Celta Vigo

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Elche	Away	0–0	D
19/09	Racing Santander	Home	5–0	W
16/09	Omonia Nicosia	Away	0–1	L
13/09	Malaga	Home	1–1	D
07/09	Getafe	Away	1–1	D

Real Betis

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
14/10	FC Porto	Home	3–2	W
11/10	Osasuna	Home	5–2	W
20/09	Deportivo La Coruna	Away	1–1	D
17/09	Getafe	Home	1–0	W
14/09	Villarreal	Away	2–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — La Liga

Celta Vigo #9 · 8 pts — Real Betis #3 · 19 pts

Celta Vigo

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–5D–2L

W 1

D 5

L 2

Played8

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.80

Clean sheets4

Failed to score4

Yellow cards14

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.43

xG against (avg)0.48

Corners for (avg)4.60

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Real Betis

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–1D–1L

W 6

D 1

L 1

Played8

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets4

Failed to score0

Yellow cards12

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.75

xG against (avg)1.60

Corners for (avg)4.70

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Celta VigoReal Betis

W 1

D 5

L 2

W 6

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.00

1.80

Goals conceded (avg)

0.80

1.10

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.43

1.75

xG against (avg)

0.48

1.60

Corners for (avg)

4.60

4.70

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Celta Vigo

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Real Betis

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Celta Vigo

❌ C. Perez — Inactive
❌ M. Vecino — Knee Injury
❌ B. Iglesias — Muscle Injury
❌ A. Febas — Ribs Injury
❌ M. Alonso — Red Card
❌ A. Antanon — Ankle Injury
❌ J. El Abdellaoui — Knee Injury
❌ M. Roman — Knee Injury
❌ C. Starfelt — Injury
❌ I. Aspas — Muscle Injury
❌ P. Duran — Calf Injury

Real Betis

❌ D. Conde — Shoulder Injury
❌ A. Ezzalzouli — Knee Injury
❌ G. Lo Celso — Muscle Injury
❌ J. Morante — Injury
❌ T. Parrott — Inactive
❌ G. Petit — Muscle Injury
❌ A. Ruibal — Knee Injury
❌ D. Ceballos — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ D. Llorente — Broken nose
❌ J. Firpo — Groin Injury
❌ I. Losada — Inactive

More: La Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws