Predictions β†’ Spain La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante

Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Estadio de Riazor β€’ 🌧 25.8Β°C, 40 km/h, 1mm drizzle

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance β€” 1X
Model 79.5% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 74.6% Β· Edge +6.2 pp
Best odds 1.34 1xBet 1.34Marathonbet 1.33Betano 1.32
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 48.3% 2.17 1xBet 46.7% +1.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.5% 1.34 1xBet 73.3% +6.2 pp
BTTS No 82% 50.7% 2.05 Bet365 46.1% +4.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 53.3% 1.96 1xBet 50.3% +3 pp
Correct Score 1-0 71% 12.2% 8.00 Bet365 6.2% +6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.2% 1.91 Betano 49.9% +3.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.49 – 0.74 Levante Β· expected total 2.23

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Deportivo La Coruna host Levante at the Estadio de Riazor on Friday night, with the two clubs separated by five points and nine places after eight rounds. Deportivo sit 8th on 10 points, while Levante are 18th on 5 from six games, so the home side have both the table and the venue in their favour.

The model sees a clear edge for Deportivo. Their recent form reads DLDWW, Levante's LLDWD, and the expected goals split is emphatic: 1.489 for the hosts against 0.7422 for the visitors. Recent shot quality is less one-sided, with Deportivo at 1.11 and Levante at 1.44, which is the main reason this isn't a blowout projection. Both squads are depleted, Deportivo listing eight absentees including P. Aubameyang and Angelino, Levante four. The head-to-head offers little comfort to the hosts, with Levante winning the last two meetings 2-1 and 1-2.

The headline tip is a home win at 48.3 percent, priced at 2.17, with confidence at 81. The double chance 1X lands at 79.5 percent and is the safer route. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 53.3 percent (odds 1.96), and both teams to score is a narrow No at 50.7 percent (2.05). The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12.2 percent, with 2-0 next at 11.92. Corners lean over 9.5, expected 10.1 at 53.2 percent.

The honest caveat: Deportivo's recent xG of 1.11 is well below their match expectation, and Levante's 1.44 suggests the visitors are creating more than their league position implies. If that trend holds, the home win at 2.17 is thinner than it looks.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Deportivo La Coruna

Form (last 5)
DReal Betis (H) 1–1 Β· 20/09/2026LSevilla (H) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026DGetafe (A) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026WVillarreal (A) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026WValencia (H) 3–1 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.11
xG against (recent avg)0.90
Elo strength rating1395
Players out8

Levante

Form (last 5)
LVillarreal (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LBarcelona (H) 2–4 Β· 13/09/2026DMalaga (A) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026WReal Betis (H) 5–2 Β· 29/08/2026DOsasuna (A) 0–0 Β· 24/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.44
xG against (recent avg)2.54
Elo strength rating1395
Players out4
Deportivo La CorunaLevante
LVillarreal (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LBarcelona (H) 2–4 Β· 13/09/2026DMalaga (A) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026WReal Betis (H) 5–2 Β· 29/08/2026DOsasuna (A) 0–0 Β· 24/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
2.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.11
1.44
xG against (recent avg)
0.90
2.54
Elo strength rating
1395
1395
Players out
8
4

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Deportivo La Coruna

Winless 3
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Levante

Lost 2 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Levante

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Deportivo La Coruna at home Β· Levante away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Deportivo La Coruna (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Levante (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–2L
D 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Deportivo La Coruna (home)Levante (away)
W 1
D 2
L 1
D 2
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.50
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
1
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
12.2%
2–0
9.8%
2–1
7.3%
3–0
4.9%
3–1
3.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Deportivo La Coruna 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Levante 3 wins Β· avg 2.7 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

3
4
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
25 Jan 2025 Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Levante Segunda DivisiΓ³n
24 Oct 2024 Levante 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna Segunda DivisiΓ³n
27 Jan 2018 Deportivo La Coruna 2–2 Levante La Liga
26 Aug 2017 Levante 2–2 Deportivo La Coruna La Liga
19 Mar 2016 Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Levante La Liga
07 Nov 2015 Levante 1–1 Deportivo La Coruna La Liga
17 May 2015 Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Levante La Liga
09 Jan 2015 Levante 0–0 Deportivo La Coruna La Liga
13 Apr 2013 Levante 0–4 Deportivo La Coruna La Liga
18 Nov 2012 Deportivo La Coruna 0–2 Levante La Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Deportivo La Coruna

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Real Betis Home 1–1 D
16/09 Sevilla Home 0–1 L
13/09 Getafe Away 1–1 D
05/09 Villarreal Away 3–2 W
30/08 Valencia Home 3–1 W

Levante

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Villarreal Away 1–3 L
13/09 Barcelona Home 2–4 L
06/09 Malaga Away 0–0 D
29/08 Real Betis Home 5–2 W
24/08 Osasuna Away 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna #8 Β· 10 pts β€”  Levante #18 Β· 5 pts

Deportivo La Coruna

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–2L
W 2
D 4
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards13
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.11
xG against (avg)0.90
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Levante

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–3L
W 1
D 2
L 3
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.44
xG against (avg)2.54
Corners for (avg)3.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Deportivo La CorunaLevante
W 2
D 4
L 2
W 1
D 2
L 3
Played
8
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
2.00
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
13
7
Red cards
2
0
xG for (avg)
1.11
1.44
xG against (avg)
0.90
2.54
Corners for (avg)
6.30
3.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Deportivo La Coruna

1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
5
scored conceded

Levante

2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Deportivo La Coruna

  • ❌ N. Carrillo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Y. Hernandez β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ A. Traore β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Altimira β€” Red Card
  • ❌ P. Aubameyang β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Casado β€” Collarbone injury
  • ❌ Z. Eddahchouri β€” Wrist Injury
  • ❌ Angelino β€” Red Card

Levante

  • ❌ R. Brugue β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Primo β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ K. Etta Eyong β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Sotelo β€” Knee Injury

More: La Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws