Villarreal vs Elche
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:15 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Estadio de la Cerámica • ☁️ 24.1°C, 15 km/h overcast
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 90% | 71.8% | 1.51 | 1xBet | 68.4% | +3.4 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 78% | 80.6% | 1.14 | 1xBet | 86.8% | -6.2 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 83% | 53.6% | 1.62 | Bet365 | 58.9% | -5.3 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 51.3% | 1.50 | Bet365 | 64.7% | -13.4 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | 65% | 8.7% | 9.75 | Betano | 5.3% | +3.4 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.3% | 1.98 | Bet365 | 48.3% | +5 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Villarreal 1.90 – 0.91 Elche · expected total 2.81
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model is firmly behind the hosts. Villarreal's recent expected goals read 2.77 against Elche's 1.12, and the goal projections split 1.9024 to 0.9078 in their favour. Form is patchy — Villarreal's last five read LWWLL, Elche's WLDLL — but the underlying numbers point one way. Both squads are depleted: Villarreal miss A. Diatta, W. Kambwala, J. Foyth, T. Buchanan and S. Comesana, while Elche are without A. Boayar, G. Diangana, A. Osorio, Y. Santiago and F. Redondo Solari.
The headline tip is a home win at 71.8% probability, priced at 1.51. Double chance 1X lands at 80.6%. For goals, Over 2.5 carries 51.3% and BTTS Yes 53.6% at 1.62. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 8.7%, with 1-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 close behind. Corners offer an angle: Over 9.5 at 53.3% with 10.1 expected.
The honest caveat is that 1.51 offers thin margin for a side on LWWLL, and Villarreal's five absentees could blunt the edge the numbers suggest. Treat the straight win as a banker only at your own risk.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Villarreal
Elche
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Villarreal
Elche
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — La Liga
Villarreal
Elche
Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Villarreal at home · Elche away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Villarreal (home)
Elche (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Elche 2 wins · 3 draws · Villarreal 5 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 2026 | Villarreal | 2–1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 03 Jan 2026 | Elche | 1–3 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Elche | 3–1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 04 Sep 2022 | Villarreal | 4–0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 16 Jan 2022 | Elche | 1–0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 22 Sep 2021 | Villarreal | 4–1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 06 Feb 2021 | Elche | 2–2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 06 Dec 2020 | Villarreal | 0–0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 10 May 2015 | Villarreal | 1–0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 03 Jan 2015 | Elche | 2–2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
📈 Recent Form
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Real Madrid | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Levante | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 17/09 | Malaga | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Betis | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 08/09 | Borussia Dortmund | Away | 2–3 | L |
Elche
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Espanyol | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 15/09 | Real Madrid | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 12/09 | Athletic Club | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 07/09 | Real Sociedad | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 28/08 | Racing Santander | Away | 2–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — La Liga
Villarreal #11 · 8 pts — Elche #17 · 6 pts
Villarreal
Elche
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Villarreal
Elche
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Villarreal
- ❌ A. Diatta — Red Card
- ❌ W. Kambwala — Transfer negotiations
- ❌ J. Foyth — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ T. Buchanan — Muscle Injury
- ❌ S. Comesana — Injury
Elche
- ❌ A. Boayar — Muscle Injury
- ❌ G. Diangana — Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Osorio — Muscle Injury
- ❌ Y. Santiago — Knee Injury
- ❌ F. Redondo Solari — Red Card
More: La Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws