Predictions β†’ Spain La Liga

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Next match: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Coliseum Alfonso PΓ©rez β€’ 🌦 15.4Β°C, 10 km/h, 0.8mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Draw 76% 35.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 68% 67.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 83% 52.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 87% 60.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-0 85% 21.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 78% 30.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Getafe 0.73 – 0.71 Rayo Vallecano Β· expected total 1.45

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Monday night's La Liga fare takes us to the Coliseum Alfonso PΓ©rez, where Getafe and Rayo Vallecano meet separated by almost nothing. Both sit on 8 points, with Getafe 14th after 8 games and Rayo 13th having played one fewer. It is a south Madrid derby with early-season breathing room at stake rather than crisis, but neither side can afford to gift a direct rival three points.

The model sees a tight, low-quality attacking picture. Getafe's recent expected goals sit at just 0.68, Rayo's at 1.29, and the match lambdas come out at 0.7337 for the hosts and 0.7123 for the visitors. Form reads LWLDD for Getafe and DWLWL for Rayo, and both injury lists are long, with Getafe missing ten players and Rayo nine. The head-to-head record is telling: the last five meetings produced 0-2, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-0.

That shapes the tips. The draw is priced at 35.8 percent with confidence of 76, while the draw value angle sits at 30.5 percent with confidence of 78. Double chance 1X lands at 67.9 percent, and Under 2.5 goals at 60.6 percent. Both teams to score is a No at 52.4 percent, and the correct score model leans to 0-0 at 21.8 percent, with 0-0 the top scoreline at 24.78 and 1-1 next at 13.54. Corners offer a separate route, with Over 9.5 at 52.6 percent against an expected 9.8.

The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds were supplied, so the value case rests on model probabilities alone. With ten Getafe absences, a single set-piece or error could break a game the numbers say should stay goalless.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Getafe

Form (last 5)
LBarcelona (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026WMalaga (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026LReal Betis (A) 0–1 Β· 17/09/2026DDeportivo La Coruna (H) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026DCelta Vigo (H) 1–1 Β· 07/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.68
xG against (recent avg)1.13
Elo strength rating1541
Players out10

Rayo Vallecano

Form (last 5)
DOsasuna (A) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026WEspanyol (H) 2–1 Β· 15/09/2026LReal Madrid (A) 1–4 Β· 12/09/2026WRacing Santander (H) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026LBarcelona (A) 2–5 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)2.30
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.29
xG against (recent avg)1.45
Elo strength rating1550
Players out9
GetafeRayo Vallecano
Goals scored (season avg)
0.50
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
2.30
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.68
1.29
xG against (recent avg)
1.13
1.45
Elo strength rating
1541
1550
Players out
10
9

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Getafe

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Rayo Vallecano

BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” La Liga

Getafe

2nd worst attack (0.50 goals/game) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Rayo Vallecano

Best BTTS rate (100%)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Getafe at home Β· Rayo Vallecano away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Getafe (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–0L
W 2
D 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Rayo Vallecano (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L
D 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Getafe (home)Rayo Vallecano (away)
W 2
D 2
D 1
L 3
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.50
3.00
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–0
21.8%
1–1
11.9%
2–2
1.4%
3–3
0.1%
4–4
0%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Getafe 0 wins Β· 6 draws Β· Rayo Vallecano 4 wins Β· avg 1.2 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 10

6
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 May 2026 Getafe 0–2 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
02 Jan 2026 Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Getafe La Liga
02 May 2025 Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Getafe La Liga
24 Aug 2024 Getafe 0–0 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
13 Apr 2024 Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Getafe La Liga
02 Jan 2024 Getafe 0–2 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
12 Feb 2023 Getafe 1–1 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
14 Oct 2022 Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Getafe La Liga
08 May 2022 Getafe 0–0 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
18 Sep 2021 Rayo Vallecano 3–0 Getafe La Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Getafe

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Barcelona Away 0–3 L
20/09 Malaga Home 1–0 W
17/09 Real Betis Away 0–1 L
13/09 Deportivo La Coruna Home 1–1 D
07/09 Celta Vigo Home 1–1 D

Rayo Vallecano

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Osasuna Away 1–1 D
15/09 Espanyol Home 2–1 W
12/09 Real Madrid Away 1–4 L
05/09 Racing Santander Home 3–2 W
31/08 Barcelona Away 2–5 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” La Liga

Getafe #14 Β· 8 pts β€”  Rayo Vallecano #13 Β· 8 pts

Getafe

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–4L
W 2
D 2
L 4
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score4
Yellow cards28
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.68
xG against (avg)1.13
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Rayo Vallecano

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–3L
W 2
D 2
L 3
Played7
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards17
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.29
xG against (avg)1.45
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
GetafeRayo Vallecano
W 2
D 2
L 4
W 2
D 2
L 3
Played
8
7
Goals scored (avg)
0.50
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
2.30
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
4
0
Yellow cards
28
17
Red cards
3
2
xG for (avg)
0.68
1.29
xG against (avg)
1.13
1.45
Corners for (avg)
3.60
4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Getafe

1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

Rayo Vallecano

2
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Getafe

  • ❌ Juanmi β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Uche β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Kiko Femenia β€” Red Card
  • ❌ M. Martin β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ A. Abqar β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Francho β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Garcia β€” Injury
  • ❌ Z. Romero β€” Red Card
  • ❌ B. Mayoral β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Terrats β€” Inactive

Rayo Vallecano

  • ❌ M. Kumbulla β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Luiz Felipe β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ D. Mendez β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Batalla β€” Broken calfbone
  • ❌ I. Palazon β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Vertrouwd β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ R. Nteka β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Perez β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. de Frutos β€” Red Card

More: La Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws