Predictions β†’ Spain La Liga

Levante vs Sevilla

Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 8 β€’ Estadio Ciudad de Valencia β€’ 🌀 22.5Β°C, 2 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.74 β†’ 2.82 β–²3% 74% 29.8% 2.82 1xBet 35.3% -5.5 pp
Double Chance 12 69% 68.3% 1.38 Marathonbet 70.8% -2.5 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 52% 1.85 William Hill 51.3% +0.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.6% 2.25 Pinnacle 44.2% +3.4 pp
Correct Score 1-0 62% 6.6% 8.00 William Hill 6.3% +0.3 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 65% 27.6% 3.35 Dafabet 29.2% -1.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.6 exp.) Under 9.5 66% 56.8% 1.91 Betano 52.4% +4.4 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Levante 1.31 – 1.29 Sevilla Β· expected total 2.60

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Levante sit 18th with 5 points from 6 games and host a Sevilla side riding 5th on 13 points from 7. On paper this is a mismatch of table position, but the venue and the numbers tell a more interesting story for bettors.

The model leans Home at 29.8% with 74 confidence, priced at 2.82 β€” a clear signal that Sevilla's league standing is not being fully trusted on the road. Levante's recent expected goals of 1.44 dwarf Sevilla's 0.66, and the goal expectations are near-identical (1.3086 home, 1.2902 away), which explains why the draw also carries 27.6% at 65 confidence. Form reads LLDWD for the hosts against LWWDL for the visitors, so neither arrives convincing.

Both teams carry heavy injury lists β€” four out for Levante, six for Sevilla β€” which adds volatility to any read on lineups. The double chance covering 12 sits at 68.3%, the safest anchor here. Both teams to score is tipped Yes at 52% and 1.85, while Over 2.5 lands at 47.6% and 2.25, meaning the value may hide in the goals markets rather than the outright. Corners point Under 9.5 at 56.8% with an expected 7.6. The top correct score is 1-0 at 8.48, with 2-1 at 8.22 close behind.

The honest caveat: a 29.8% home probability is not a strong edge, and Sevilla's six absences could just as easily sharpen them as blunt them. Treat the home tip as a value play, not a conviction.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Levante

Form (last 5)
LVillarreal (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LBarcelona (H) 2–4 Β· 13/09/2026DMalaga (A) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026WReal Betis (H) 5–2 Β· 29/08/2026DOsasuna (A) 0–0 Β· 24/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.44
xG against (recent avg)2.54
Elo strength rating1395
Players out4

Sevilla

Form (last 5)
LBarcelona (H) 1–3 Β· 19/09/2026WDeportivo La Coruna (A) 1–0 Β· 16/09/2026WValencia (H) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026DEspanyol (A) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026LAtletico Madrid (H) 1–3 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.66
xG against (recent avg)1.39
Elo strength rating1452
Players out6
LevanteSevilla
LVillarreal (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LBarcelona (H) 2–4 Β· 13/09/2026DMalaga (A) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026WReal Betis (H) 5–2 Β· 29/08/2026DOsasuna (A) 0–0 Β· 24/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.44
0.66
xG against (recent avg)
2.54
1.39
Elo strength rating
1395
1452
Players out
4
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Levante

Lost 2 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Sevilla

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Levante at home Β· Sevilla away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Levante (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)3.50
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Sevilla (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Levante (home)Sevilla (away)
W 1
L 1
W 2
D 1
Played
2
3
Goals scored (avg)
3.50
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
3.00
0.70
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
6.6%
2–1
6.4%
2–0
5%
3–1
2.8%
3–0
2.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Levante 2 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Sevilla 7 wins Β· avg 3.2 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

2
1
7
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
23 Apr 2026 Levante 2–0 Sevilla La Liga
04 Jan 2026 Sevilla 0–3 Levante La Liga
21 Apr 2022 Levante 2–3 Sevilla La Liga
24 Oct 2021 Sevilla 5–3 Levante La Liga
21 Apr 2021 Levante 0–1 Sevilla La Liga
01 Oct 2020 Sevilla 1–0 Levante La Liga
15 Jun 2020 Levante 1–1 Sevilla La Liga
21 Jan 2020 Sevilla 3–1 Levante Copa del Rey
20 Oct 2019 Sevilla 1–0 Levante La Liga
26 Jan 2019 Sevilla 5–0 Levante La Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Levante

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Villarreal Away 1–3 L
13/09 Barcelona Home 2–4 L
06/09 Malaga Away 0–0 D
29/08 Real Betis Home 5–2 W
24/08 Osasuna Away 0–0 D

Sevilla

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Barcelona Home 1–3 L
16/09 Deportivo La Coruna Away 1–0 W
11/09 Valencia Home 1–0 W
06/09 Espanyol Away 1–1 D
29/08 Atletico Madrid Home 1–3 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” La Liga

Levante #18 Β· 5 pts β€”  Sevilla #5 Β· 13 pts

Levante

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–3L
W 1
D 2
L 3
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.44
xG against (avg)2.54
Corners for (avg)3.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Sevilla

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–2L
W 4
D 1
L 2
Played7
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards20
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.66
xG against (avg)1.39
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
LevanteSevilla
W 1
D 2
L 3
W 4
D 1
L 2
Played
6
7
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.30
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
3
0
Yellow cards
7
20
Red cards
0
2
xG for (avg)
1.44
0.66
xG against (avg)
2.54
1.39
Corners for (avg)
3.00
3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Levante

2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Sevilla

2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Levante

  • ❌ R. Brugue β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Primo β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ K. Etta Eyong β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Sotelo β€” Knee Injury

Sevilla

  • ❌ A. Gonzalez β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Marcao β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ K. Salas β€” Red Card
  • ❌ R. Vargas β€” Transfer negotiations
  • ❌ A. Sangante β€” Red Card
  • ❌ L. Stassin β€” Muscle Injury

More: La Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega