Predictions β†’ Spain La Liga

Osasuna vs Racing Santander

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 12:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Estadio El Sadar

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 54.2% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 41.7% Β· Edge +13.9 pp
Best odds 2.40 Betfair 2.40Betano 2.35William Hill 2.30
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.4% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.95 β†’ 2.02 β–²4% 81% 48.2% 2.02 Pinnacle 50.7% -2.5 pp
Double Chance 1X 73% 74.8% 1.33 Betano 76.6% -1.8 pp
BTTS No 84% 54.2% 2.40 Betfair 40.3% +13.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 85% 56.1% 2.27 1xBet 43.4% +12.7 pp
Correct Score 1-0 74% 13.5% 9.25 Betano 5.5% +8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.2 exp.) Under 9.5 64% 55.1% 1.90 Betano 50.1% +5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Osasuna 1.15 – 0.73 Racing Santander Β· expected total 1.88

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Osasuna host Racing Santander at Estadio El Sadar on Sunday with both clubs stuck on 8 points from 8 games, sitting 16th and 15th respectively. This is a relegation-flavoured six-pointer even in round 9, and the model leans firmly toward the home side.

The numbers behind that lean are modest but consistent. Osasuna's recent expected goals sit at 0.93, while Racing's own recent figure is 1.36, yet the match-level goal expectations favour the hosts at 1.1492 against 0.7344. Form is ugly on both sides: Osasuna arrive on DLLLW, Racing on LLWLW. The hosts are also missing a long list of players including V. Rosier, J. Herrando, A. Oroz and R. Moro, while Racing are without G. Guliashvili, Pedro Felipe, I. Luque and others. The head-to-head is mixed, with Osasuna winning the most recent meeting 2-0.

The headline tip is a home win at 48.2% probability, priced at 2.02, with confidence rated 81. Double chance 1X lands at 74.8%. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56.1% and odds of 2.27, while BTTS No sits at 54.2% and 2.4. The model's correct-score pick is 1-0 at 13.5%, with 1-0 the top scoreline at 16.19. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 55.1%, with an expected 8.2.

The value question is whether 2.02 adequately compensates for a home side with one win in five and a heavily depleted squad. The caveat is real: Osasuna's recent xG of 0.93 is below their match expectation, so the home-win edge may be thinner than the probability suggests.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Osasuna

Form (last 5)
DRayo Vallecano (H) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LAtletico Madrid (A) 0–4 Β· 16/09/2026LEspanyol (H) 0–2 Β· 12/09/2026LAlaves (A) 2–5 Β· 06/09/2026WGetafe (H) 1–0 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.93
xG against (recent avg)1.79
Elo strength rating1349
Players out8

Racing Santander

Form (last 5)
LCelta Vigo (A) 0–5 Β· 19/09/2026LBarcelona (A) 2–7 Β· 16/09/2026WAlaves (H) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LRayo Vallecano (A) 2–3 Β· 05/09/2026WElche (H) 3–2 Β· 28/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)3.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.36
xG against (recent avg)2.99
Elo strength rating1358
Players out6
OsasunaRacing Santander
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
3.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.93
1.36
xG against (recent avg)
1.79
2.99
Elo strength rating
1349
1358
Players out
8
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Osasuna

Winless 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Racing Santander

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” La Liga

Osasuna

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Racing Santander

Worst defence (3.00 conceded/game) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Osasuna at home Β· Racing Santander away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Osasuna (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2

Racing Santander (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–4L
L 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)4.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Osasuna (home)Racing Santander (away)
W 1
D 2
L 1
L 4
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.50
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
4.00
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
2
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
13.5%
2–0
8.4%
2–1
6.1%
3–0
3.2%
3–1
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Osasuna 3 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Racing Santander 3 wins Β· avg 3.3 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 6

3
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 Jul 2026 Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander Friendlies Clubs
02 Aug 2025 Osasuna 0–1 Racing Santander Friendlies Clubs
13 May 2012 Racing Santander 2–4 Osasuna La Liga
15 Jan 2012 Osasuna 0–2 Racing Santander La Liga
13 Mar 2011 Osasuna 3–1 Racing Santander La Liga
31 Oct 2010 Racing Santander 4–1 Osasuna La Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Osasuna

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Rayo Vallecano Home 1–1 D
16/09 Atletico Madrid Away 0–4 L
12/09 Espanyol Home 0–2 L
06/09 Alaves Away 2–5 L
31/08 Getafe Home 1–0 W

Racing Santander

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Celta Vigo Away 0–5 L
16/09 Barcelona Away 2–7 L
12/09 Alaves Home 2–1 W
05/09 Rayo Vallecano Away 2–3 L
28/08 Elche Home 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” La Liga

Osasuna #16 Β· 8 pts β€”  Racing Santander #15 Β· 8 pts

Osasuna

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–4L
W 2
D 2
L 4
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards17
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.93
xG against (avg)1.79
Corners for (avg)2.00
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

Racing Santander

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–4L
W 2
D 2
L 4
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)3.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards18
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.36
xG against (avg)2.99
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
OsasunaRacing Santander
W 2
D 2
L 4
W 2
D 2
L 4
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
3.00
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
3
2
Yellow cards
17
18
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.93
1.36
xG against (avg)
1.79
2.99
Corners for (avg)
2.00
3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/0
1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Osasuna

2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded

Racing Santander

1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Osasuna

  • ❌ V. Rosier β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Herrando β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Oroz β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Gomez β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ K. Barja β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Bonel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Del Castillo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ R. Moro β€” Muscle Injury

Racing Santander

  • ❌ G. Guliashvili β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ Pedro Felipe β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ I. Luque β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Martin β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Eriksson β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ A. Almeida β€” Red Card

More: La Liga predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws