Valencia vs Villarreal

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Estadio de Mestalla • ☀️ 20.2°C, 2 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away	77%	39%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	X2	72%	73.2%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	No	82%	50.4%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	82%	51.3%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	0-1	69%	10.9%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.)	Over 9.5	63%	54.3%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Valencia 0.87 – 1.24 Villarreal · expected total 2.11

🧠 Match Preview

Valencia host Villarreal at the Estadio de Mestalla on Saturday, and the stakes could hardly be more lopsided. Valencia sit 19th with just 5 points from 8 games, while Villarreal are 11th on 8 points. The home side's recent form reads DLWLL, and the visitors arrive with LWWLL.

The model leans heavily toward the away side. Villarreal's recent expected goals of 2.77 dwarf Valencia's 0.91, and the goal expectations of 1.2441 for the visitors against 0.8683 for the hosts tell the same story. The match result tip is Away at 39 percent, with a confidence of 77. Double chance X2 carries a 73.2 percent probability, which is where the safest angle likely sits. Both teams to score is tipped No at 50.4 percent, and Under 2.5 goals edges it at 51.3 percent. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 10.9 percent, with 0-2 next at 9.07. Corners are expected to reach 10.6, giving Over 9.5 a 54.3 percent chance.

The value question is whether the bookmakers price Villarreal's edge as sharply as the model does. With Valencia's injury list running to twelve names, including Maffeo and Diakhaby, and Villarreal missing Foyth, Pepe and others, the away side's superior attacking output looks the cleaner play. The honest caveat: Villarreal's own form is patchy, and a low-scoring 0-1 leaves little margin for error if Valencia nick an early goal at home.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Valencia

Form (last 5)

DRacing Santander (A) 2–2 · 11/10/2026 LReal Sociedad (H) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WAlaves (A) 1–0 · 15/09/2026 LSevilla (A) 0–1 · 11/09/2026 LBarcelona (H) 0–5 · 06/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)0.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.90

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.91

xG against (recent avg)2.01

Elo strength rating1459

Players out12

Villarreal

Form (last 5)

LReal Madrid (A) 0–1 · 10/10/2026 WLevante (H) 3–1 · 20/09/2026 WMalaga (A) 3–1 · 17/09/2026 LReal Betis (H) 1–2 · 14/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (A) 2–3 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)2.77

xG against (recent avg)1.48

Elo strength rating1623

Players out6

ValenciaVillarreal

DRacing Santander (A) 2–2 · 11/10/2026 LReal Sociedad (H) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WAlaves (A) 1–0 · 15/09/2026 LSevilla (A) 0–1 · 11/09/2026 LBarcelona (H) 0–5 · 06/09/2026

LReal Madrid (A) 0–1 · 10/10/2026 WLevante (H) 3–1 · 20/09/2026 WMalaga (A) 3–1 · 17/09/2026 LReal Betis (H) 1–2 · 14/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (A) 2–3 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

0.80

1.60

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.90

1.60

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.91

2.77

xG against (recent avg)

2.01

1.48

Elo strength rating

1459

1623

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Valencia

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Villarreal

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — La Liga

Valencia

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Villarreal

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Valencia at home · Villarreal away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Valencia (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L

D 1

L 3

Played4

Goals scored (avg)0.50

Goals conceded (avg)2.30

Clean sheets1

Failed to score3

Villarreal (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–2L

W 1

D 2

L 2

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Valencia (home)Villarreal (away)

D 1

L 3

W 1

D 2

L 2

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.50

1.40

Goals conceded (avg)

2.30

1.40

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1

10.9%

0–2

7.4%

1–2

6.4%

0–3

3.1%

1–3

2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Valencia 2 wins · 3 draws · Villarreal 5 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
22 Feb 2026	Villarreal	2–1	Valencia	La Liga
25 Oct 2025	Valencia	0–2	Villarreal	La Liga
15 Feb 2025	Villarreal	1–1	Valencia	La Liga
31 Aug 2024	Valencia	1–1	Villarreal	La Liga
17 Mar 2024	Villarreal	1–0	Valencia	La Liga
02 Jan 2024	Valencia	3–1	Villarreal	La Liga
03 May 2023	Valencia	1–1	Villarreal	La Liga
31 Dec 2022	Villarreal	2–1	Valencia	La Liga
19 Apr 2022	Villarreal	2–0	Valencia	La Liga
30 Oct 2021	Valencia	2–0	Villarreal	La Liga

📈 Recent Form

Valencia

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Racing Santander	Away	2–2	D
20/09	Real Sociedad	Home	2–3	L
15/09	Alaves	Away	1–0	W
11/09	Sevilla	Away	0–1	L
06/09	Barcelona	Home	0–5	L

Villarreal

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Real Madrid	Away	0–1	L
20/09	Levante	Home	3–1	W
17/09	Malaga	Away	3–1	W
14/09	Real Betis	Home	1–2	L
08/09	Borussia Dortmund	Away	2–3	L

📊 Season Comparison — La Liga

Valencia #19 · 5 pts — Villarreal #11 · 8 pts

Valencia

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–5L

W 1

D 2

L 5

Played8

Goals scored (avg)0.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.90

Clean sheets2

Failed to score4

Yellow cards17

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.91

xG against (avg)2.01

Corners for (avg)4.80

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Villarreal

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–4L

W 2

D 2

L 4

Played8

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards14

Red cards0

xG for (avg)2.77

xG against (avg)1.48

Corners for (avg)7.20

Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

ValenciaVillarreal

W 1

D 2

L 5

W 2

D 2

L 4

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.80

1.60

Goals conceded (avg)

1.90

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.91

2.77

xG against (avg)

2.01

1.48

Corners for (avg)

4.80

7.20

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

3/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Valencia

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Villarreal

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Valencia

❌ S. Canos — Knee Injury
❌ J. Copete — Ankle Injury
❌ D. Foulquier — Knee Injury
❌ D. Lopez — Knee Injury
❌ A. Mari — Leg Injury
❌ L. Rioja — Muscle Injury
❌ J. De Haas — Ankle Injury
❌ P. Maffeo — Muscle Injury
❌ G. Rodriguez — Muscle Injury
❌ U. Sadiq — Muscle Injury
❌ M. Diakhaby — Muscle Injury
❌ C. Tarrega — Hamstring Injury

Villarreal

❌ A. Diatta — Red Card
❌ W. Kambwala — Transfer negotiations
❌ J. Foyth — Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ T. Buchanan — Muscle Injury
❌ S. Comesana — Injury
❌ N. Pepe — Eye injury
❓ P. Gulacsi (doubtful) — Personal Reasons

More: La Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws