Predictions → Spain Segunda División

Sporting Gijon vs Albacete

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • ⛅ 15.7°C, 21 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance — 1X
Model 83.4% · Market best price ≈ 71.9% · Edge +12.8 pp
Best odds 1.39 Betano 1.391xBet 1.35Betfair 1.33
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 10.2% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.95 → 2.35 ▲21% 81% 47.7% 2.35 Betano 42.1% +5.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 80% 83.4% 1.39 Betano 70.6% +12.8 pp
BTTS No 81% 50% 2.12 Betano 44.1% +5.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.7% 1.93 Betano 50% -0.3 pp
Correct Score 2-0 67% 10% 13.00 Betano 3.7% +6.3 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 54.3% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.92 – 0.79 Albacete · expected total 2.70

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Sporting Gijon host Albacete in Segunda División round 10, and the table tells the story before a ball is kicked. Sporting sit 6th on 16 points from 9 games, while Albacete are 22nd with just 1 point from 8. The model makes the hosts a 47.7 percent favourite at odds of 2.35, with confidence rated 81.

The form lines reinforce that gap: Sporting arrive on WLWLL, Albacete on LLLDL. Expected goals point the same way, with the hosts at 1.9167 against Albacete's 0.7865, though recent xG is tighter at 1.07 for Sporting and 1.11 for the visitors. No injuries are listed for either side, so both should be close to full strength.

The headline tip is a home win, but the safer angle is the double chance at 83.4 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 50 percent and odds of 2.12, while Under 2.5 goals carries 49.7 percent at 1.93. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10 percent, with 1-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 54.3 percent, with an expected 8.5.

Value may hide in the home win at 2.35 if you trust the table and xG gap, or in the Under 2.5 at 1.93 given Albacete's blunt attack. The honest caveat: recent xG is nearly level, and the head-to-head is wild, including a 3-4 and a 3-3, so this fixture has a habit of ignoring the formbook.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Sporting Gijon

Form (last 5)
WCelta de Vigo II (H) 3–2 · 04/10/2026LOviedo (A) 0–2 · 27/09/2026WFC Andorra (A) 3–1 · 19/09/2026LEldense (H) 0–1 · 13/09/2026LGirona (H) 0–2 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.90
xG against (recent avg)0.75
Elo strength rating1521

Albacete

Form (last 5)
LEibar (H) 1–3 · 03/10/2026LGirona (A) 0–2 · 25/09/2026LCordoba (H) 1–2 · 18/09/2026DGranada CF (A) 1–1 · 12/09/2026LCastellón (A) 0–2 · 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.35
xG against (recent avg)0.35
Elo strength rating1374
Sporting GijonAlbacete
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
0
xG for (recent avg)
0.90
0.35
xG against (recent avg)
0.75
0.35
Elo strength rating
1521
1374

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Sporting Gijon

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Albacete

Lost 3 in a row Winless 9
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División

Sporting Gijon

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Albacete

Worst attack (0.60 goals/game)

Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Sporting Gijon at home · Albacete away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Sporting Gijon (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3

Albacete (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L
D 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Sporting Gijon (home)Albacete (away)
W 2
D 1
L 2
D 1
L 3
Played
5
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.80
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
3
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
10%
1–0
9.6%
2–1
7.9%
3–0
6.4%
3–1
5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Albacete 3 wins · 4 draws · Sporting Gijon 3 wins · avg 3.2 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

3
4
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
15 Feb 2026 Albacete 1–1 Sporting Gijon Segunda División
28 Sep 2025 Sporting Gijon 3–4 Albacete Segunda División
23 Mar 2025 Sporting Gijon 0–2 Albacete Segunda División
27 Oct 2024 Albacete 3–3 Sporting Gijon Segunda División
01 Mar 2024 Sporting Gijon 2–1 Albacete Segunda División
22 Oct 2023 Albacete 1–3 Sporting Gijon Segunda División
05 Mar 2023 Albacete 2–1 Sporting Gijon Segunda División
03 Nov 2022 Sporting Gijon 2–2 Albacete Segunda División
20 Feb 2021 Albacete 0–1 Sporting Gijon Segunda División
03 Dec 2020 Sporting Gijon 0–0 Albacete Segunda División

📈 Recent Form

Sporting Gijon

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
04/10 Celta de Vigo II Home 3–2 W
27/09 Oviedo Away 0–2 L
19/09 FC Andorra Away 3–1 W
13/09 Eldense Home 0–1 L
05/09 Girona Home 0–2 L

Albacete

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Eibar Home 1–3 L
25/09 Girona Away 0–2 L
18/09 Cordoba Home 1–2 L
12/09 Granada CF Away 1–1 D
06/09 Castellón Away 0–2 L

📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División

Sporting Gijon #6 · 16 pts —  Albacete #22 · 1 pts

Sporting Gijon

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–1D–3L
W 5
D 1
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score4
Yellow cards24
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.90
xG against (avg)0.75
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Albacete

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–7L
D 1
L 7
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets0
Failed to score3
Yellow cards16
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.35
xG against (avg)0.35
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Sporting GijonAlbacete
W 5
D 1
L 3
D 1
L 7
Played
9
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.90
Clean sheets
3
0
Failed to score
4
3
Yellow cards
24
16
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
0.90
0.35
xG against (avg)
0.75
0.35
Corners for (avg)
3.50
4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Sporting Gijon

2
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
1
scored conceded

Albacete

2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws