Spain Segunda División Predictions and Betting Tips

Almeria carry the strongest predicted outcome in this window, with the PredictLix model rating their home win over Leganes at 68.8% and 89 confidence, the highest probability on the board. That edge of +10.9pp over implied odds at 1.7 reflects a clear lambda gap of 2.3425 against 0.8148. Girona's 65.6% home probability against FC Andorra and Mallorca's 67.4% against Las Palmas also stand out. Back Almeria at 1.7 with high confidence.

Transparency matters more than marketing, so here are the real settled numbers for this league. Across 139 settled matches, updated 2026-10-05, the PredictLix model called the match winner correctly 40.3% of the time, that is 56 of 139. Double chance landed at 74.8% (104/139), while BTTS hit 56.8% (79/139) and Over/Under 2.5 reached 56.1% (78/139). Correct score managed just 8.6% (12/139), and draw picks only 15.8% (9/57).

Girona versus FC Andorra stands out as the clearest Over lean, with the PredictLix model calling Over 2.5 at 49.5% and a home lambda of 2.074 against Andorra's leaky defence. Valladolid versus Eldense swings hard the other way: Under 2.5 at 58.2%, helped by an away lambda of just 0.4673. Granada CF versus Cadiz also leans Under at 54.4%, with Cadiz's attacking lambda a thin 0.6666. Best angle: Valladolid-Eldense Under 2.5 at 1.97, medium confidence.

Eibar arrive with seven straight wins, the longest active run in this window, while Almeria and Castellón both carry five-match winning sequences into their ties. Sabadell stand unbeaten across nine of their ten most recent contests. At the other end, Albacete have failed to win in nine, and their one-point tally underlines the scale of that slump. Note that two AD Ceuta FC fixtures carry partial data, so their trend picture rests on a shorter sample.

Eibar's defensive record stands out with 0.4 conceded per game and six clean sheets, while Almeria pair 0.4 conceded with five shutouts. Castellón's 0.8 conceded and four clean sheets also impress. At the other end, AD Ceuta FC concede 2.3 per game without a single clean sheet, and Albacete leak 1.9 with none. Leganes ship 1.4, Cordoba 1.5, and Eldense 1.9, confirming the widest defensive gaps across this window.

AD Ceuta FC sit 21st in the Regular Season - 10 table on 5 points, firmly in the RELEGATION ZONE and needing a win, while Oviedo arrive 10th with 11 points. Girona, fourth and chasing a Champions League spot, host FC Andorra, who are 20th and also in the RELEGATION ZONE and must win. In another Regular Season - 10 tie, 14th-placed Valladolid welcome 17th-placed Eldense, a side fighting a relegation battle and needing points.

Almeria anchor the headline acca at 1.7 after an 89 confidence rating, with the PredictLix model giving them a 68.8% win probability against Leganes. Mallorca follow at 1.62, backed by 88 confidence and a 67.4% home win chance over Las Palmas. Valladolid complete the treble at 2.0, carrying 81 confidence against bottom side Albacete. Combined odds for all three legs sit at 5.51, a solid value play worth a stake.

Almeria vs Leganes stands out, where the PredictLix model rates the home win at 68.8% against a bookmaker implied 57.9%, a +10.9pp edge at odds of 1.7. Mallorca vs Las Palmas also shows value, with the model at 67.4% versus an implied 60.5%, delivering a +6.9pp edge at 1.62. A positive edge signals long-term value, not a guaranteed win in this specific match. Back Almeria at 1.7 with confidence 89.