Sabadell vs Tenerife

Sabadell host Tenerife at the Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta on Sunday with the two clubs separated by four points and four places in the Segunda División table. Sabadell sit 5th on 16 points from 9 games, while Tenerife are 12th on 12 points from the same number of matches, so the hosts have both home advantage and a modest cushion to protect.

The model leans firmly toward the home side. Sabadell's recent form reads WDDWL, Tenerife's DLDLW, and the expected goals split is telling: 1.9873 for the hosts against 0.9771 for the visitors. Recent xG is tighter, at 1.52 for Sabadell and 1.21 for Tenerife, which suggests the gap may be narrower than the headline numbers imply. No injuries are listed for either squad.

The headline tip is a home win at 63.7 percent with 87 percent confidence. Double chance 1X lands at 80 percent, and the correct-score model favours 2-0 at 8.1 percent, with 2-1, 1-0, 3-0 and 3-1 completing the top scores. Both teams to score sits at 50.8 percent, over 2.5 goals at 51.4 percent, and corners under 9.5 at 58.5 percent with an expected 7. Value may hide in the double chance if bookmakers price the away side too generously, since the model's 80 percent is a strong cushion.

The honest caveat: Sabadell's recent xG of 1.52 is well below their season-long attacking figure, and Tenerife's 1.21 recent xG shows they are creating enough to punish a complacent host. The 2-0 correct score carries only 8.1 percent, so treat it as a speculative add-on rather than a core bet.