Predictions → Spain Segunda División

Tenerife vs Girona

Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Heliodoro Rodríguez López

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.61 → 2.68 ▲3% 74% 29.7% 2.68 Pinnacle 37% -7.3 pp
Double Chance 12 67% 66.7% 1.36 William Hill 70.1% -3.4 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 48.4% 1.85 William Hill 51.3% -2.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.3% 1.77 1xBet 55.6% -3.3 pp
Correct Score 0-1 63% 7.4% 8.00 Bet365 6.2% +1.2 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 67% 27.8% 3.25 1xBet 29.9% -2.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~6.3 exp.) Under 9.5 71% 61% 1.65 Betano 57.8% +3.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Tenerife 1.23 – 1.12 Girona · expected total 2.35

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Tenerife host Girona at the Heliodoro Rodríguez López on Monday night with the visitors chasing promotion form and the hosts still hunting consistency. Girona sit 7th on 14 points from 8 games, while Tenerife are 13th on 11 points from the same number of matches, so the gap in the table is modest but the momentum clearly favours the away side.

The form lines tell the story: Tenerife have stumbled through an L-D-L-W-D sequence, whereas Girona arrive on a D-W-W-L-W run. The goal projections are tight, with Tenerife at 1.2262 and Girona at 1.1199, and recent expected goals of 1.21 for the hosts against 1.29 for the visitors confirm this is no shootout. No injuries are listed for either squad, so both managers have full hands to play.

The model leans toward Girona for the outright win at 29.7 percent, priced at 2.68, with confidence of 74. The double chance covering draw or away lands at 66.7 percent, and the draw itself carries 27.8 percent at 67 confidence. Both teams to score is rated 48.4 percent at 1.85, while Under 2.5 goals is the more likely outcome at 52.3 percent and 1.77. The most probable correct score is 0-1 at 9.41 percent, followed by 1-2 at 7.37 and 0-2 at 6.01. Corners point low, with an expected 6.3 and Under 9.5 at 61 percent.

The honest caveat: a 29.7 percent away win is far from dominant, and Tenerife's home ground plus a tight goal projection means the draw is a live threat. Treat the away tip as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Tenerife

Form (last 5)
LCordoba (A) 2–3 · 05/10/2026DCadiz (H) 1–1 · 26/09/2026LCastellón (A) 0–5 · 19/09/2026WLeganes (H) 2–0 · 13/09/2026DReal Sociedad II (A) 1–1 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.70
xG against (recent avg)0.78
Elo strength rating1345

Girona

Form (last 5)
DMallorca (H) 0–0 · 04/10/2026WAlbacete (H) 2–0 · 25/09/2026WCadiz (A) 2–1 · 19/09/2026LCastellón (H) 1–2 · 12/09/2026WSporting Gijon (A) 2–0 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.91
xG against (recent avg)1.46
Elo strength rating1451
TenerifeGirona
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.70
0.91
xG against (recent avg)
0.78
1.46
Elo strength rating
1345
1451

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Tenerife

Winless 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Girona

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División

Tenerife

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Girona

3rd best attack (1.80 goals/game)

Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Tenerife at home · Girona away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Tenerife (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1

Girona (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–1L
W 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Tenerife (home)Girona (away)
W 2
D 1
L 1
W 2
L 1
Played
4
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
0.50
1.00
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
7.4%
1–2
5.8%
0–2
4.7%
1–3
2.2%
0–3
1.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Girona 3 wins · 3 draws · Tenerife 4 wins · avg 2.1 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10

3
3
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
19 Jun 2022 Tenerife 1–3 Girona Segunda División
11 Jun 2022 Girona 0–0 Tenerife Segunda División
09 May 2022 Girona 0–1 Tenerife Segunda División
08 Nov 2021 Tenerife 2–1 Girona Segunda División
01 May 2021 Girona 1–0 Tenerife Segunda División
21 Dec 2020 Tenerife 2–0 Girona Segunda División
19 Jan 2020 Tenerife 1–0 Girona Segunda División
08 Nov 2019 Girona 1–0 Tenerife Segunda División
15 Apr 2017 Tenerife 3–3 Girona Segunda División
05 Nov 2016 Girona 1–1 Tenerife Segunda División

📈 Recent Form

Tenerife

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
05/10 Cordoba Away 2–3 L
26/09 Cadiz Home 1–1 D
19/09 Castellón Away 0–5 L
13/09 Leganes Home 2–0 W
05/09 Real Sociedad II Away 1–1 D

Girona

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
04/10 Mallorca Home 0–0 D
25/09 Albacete Home 2–0 W
19/09 Cadiz Away 2–1 W
12/09 Castellón Home 1–2 L
05/09 Sporting Gijon Away 2–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División

Tenerife #13 · 11 pts —  Girona #7 · 14 pts

Tenerife

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–3L
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.70
xG against (avg)0.78
Corners for (avg)3.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Girona

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards22
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.91
xG against (avg)1.46
Corners for (avg)3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
TenerifeGirona
W 3
D 2
L 3
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.00
Clean sheets
2
3
Failed to score
2
1
Yellow cards
19
22
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
0.70
0.91
xG against (avg)
0.78
1.46
Corners for (avg)
3.00
3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Tenerife

2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded

Girona

1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: Daniel Palencia Caballero