Eibar vs Almeria

Sunday's Segunda División fixture at the Estadio Municipal de Ipurua is a genuine top-of-the-table clash: Almeria arrive top with 24 points from 10 games, Eibar sit third on 22 from the same number of matches. Three points for the hosts would flip the leadership, which gives this one real stakes beyond the round-12 label.

The model leans home, putting Eibar's win chance at 48.3 percent with a confidence of 81. Form supports the split verdict: Eibar have gone LWWWW across their last five, while Almeria are a perfect WWWWW. The expected goals tell a more nuanced story — the model's match calculation gives Eibar 1.913 and Almeria 1.3831, yet recent shot quality actually favours the visitors, with Eibar at 1.42 xG and Almeria at 1.67. Both squads are listed with no injuries, so neither side is weakened. The head-to-head is tight and low-scoring in patches: Eibar won 1-0 in January 2026 and 1-0 in March 2025, Almeria took a 3-1 in November 2025, with a 2-2 and a 0-2 completing the last five.

The headline tip is a home win, and the double chance 12 at 72.8 percent is the safer route given how evenly matched these two are. Both teams to score lands at 51.9 percent, over 2.5 goals at 52.8 percent, and the correct-score model likes 2-1 at 7.4 percent, with 2-1 (9.41), 2-0 (6.8) and 1-0 (6.13) the leading scorelines. Corners are tipped under 9.5 at an expected 9.1, again 52.8 percent. No bookmaker odds were supplied, so value can't be measured directly — compare the 48.3 percent home figure against the market price yourself. The honest caveat: Almeria's perfect run and superior recent xG mean the home edge is thinner than the table gap suggests, and a low-scoring draw is a live risk.