Predictions → Spain Segunda División

Almeria vs Burgos

Almeria
2:1
Full Time · 03 Oct 2026
Burgos

No upcoming fixture scheduled — showing the last meeting result and the pre-match predictions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions — pre-match vs actual

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdgeResult
Match Result (1X2) Home 87% 64% @1.61 — 63.4% +0.6 pp ✅
Double Chance 1X 73% 74.6% @1.17 — 86% -11.4 pp ✅
BTTS Yes 80% 48.1% @2.00 — 48.2% -0.1 pp ✅
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.7% @1.97 — 50.1% -2.4 pp ✅
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.7% @8.50 — 5.9% +1.8 pp ✅
Corners O/U 9.5 (~? exp.) Under 9.5 63% 54% @1.85 — 52.2% +1.8 pp ❌

⚽ Model expected goals: Almeria 1.72 – 1.07 Burgos · expected total 2.79

Predictions made before kick-off, shown against the actual result. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

📈 Team Trends

Almeria

Won 5 in a row Unbeaten 5
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Burgos

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División

Almeria

3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game)

Burgos

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Almeria at home · Burgos away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Almeria (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–0D–0L
W 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Burgos (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Almeria (home)Burgos (away)
W 4
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
2.50
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.00
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

📈 Recent Form

Almeria

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Burgos Home 2–1 W
27/09 Mallorca Away 1–0 W
20/09 Celta de Vigo II Home 2–0 W
12/09 Cordoba Away 2–0 W
06/09 Cadiz Home 3–2 W

Burgos

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Almeria Away 1–2 L
27/09 Eldense Home 1–0 W
20/09 Las Palmas Away 2–1 W
11/09 AD Ceuta FC Home 3–1 W
06/09 Oviedo Away 0–0 D

📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División

Almeria #2 · 21 pts —  Burgos #8 · 14 pts

Almeria

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–0D–2L
W 7
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards16
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.34
xG against (avg)1.13
Corners for (avg)2.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Burgos

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–2L
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards20
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.60
xG against (avg)0.48
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
AlmeriaBurgos
W 7
L 2
W 4
D 2
L 2
Played
9
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.10
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
2
2
Yellow cards
16
20
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
1.34
0.60
xG against (avg)
1.13
0.48
Corners for (avg)
2.50
4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/1
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Almeria

0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Burgos

3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws