Predictions → Spain Segunda División

Oviedo vs Eibar

Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Nuevo Carlos Tartiere • ☀️ 20.3°C, 4 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.36 → 2.45 ▲4% 75% 33.2% 2.45 Pinnacle 40.7% -7.5 pp
Double Chance 12 68% 68.1% 1.36 William Hill 69.6% -1.5 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.3% 1.95 Betfair 49.5% -1.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.2% 1.70 1xBet 57.2% -8 pp
Correct Score 1-0 61% 6.3% 7.50 Bet365 6.7% -0.4 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 67% 27.8% 3.20 Betano 30.4% -2.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8 exp.) Under 9.5 65% 55.8% 1.82 Betano 52.4% +3.4 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Oviedo 1.20 – 1.35 Eibar · expected total 2.54

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Oviedo host Eibar at the Nuevo Carlos Tartiere on Monday night with the visitors arriving top of the Segunda División table on 21 points from 8 games, while the hosts sit 10th on 11 points. The stakes are clear: Eibar can protect their early-season cushion, Oviedo can drag themselves closer to the promotion conversation with a statement win.

The form lines pull in opposite directions. Eibar have won all five of their last five (WWWWW), yet the underlying numbers tell a more complicated story: their recent expected goals sit at just 0.88, while Oviedo's recent figure is 1.61 despite a mixed LWLWD run. The model's goal expectations are tight — 1.1951 for the home side and 1.3477 for the away side — which frames this as a low-margin contest rather than a mismatch. No injuries are reported on either side, and the head-to-head record is typically cagey: 1-1, 1-0, 0-2, 0-0 and 4-3 across the last five meetings.

The model leans Home at 33.2 percent, priced at 2.45, with the draw at 27.8 percent and double chance 12 at 68.1 percent. Under 2.5 goals is the standout at 49.2 percent against odds of 1.7, while BTTS No sits at 48.3 percent at 1.95. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 8.14 percent, followed by 2-1 at 7.57. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 55.8 percent with an expected 8.

The honest caveat: Eibar's perfect form and league-leading points tally are not reflected in their recent xG, so backing against them carries risk if that winning habit proves more than luck.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Oviedo

Form (last 5)
LEldense (A) 1–4 · 02/10/2026WSporting Gijon (H) 2–0 · 27/09/2026LSabadell (A) 1–3 · 20/09/2026WValladolid (A) 3–0 · 13/09/2026DBurgos (H) 0–0 · 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.30
xG against (recent avg)0.84
Elo strength rating1393

Eibar

Form (last 5)
WAlbacete (A) 3–1 · 03/10/2026WLas Palmas (H) 3–2 · 27/09/2026WEldense (A) 2–1 · 19/09/2026WCelta de Vigo II (A) 4–0 · 14/09/2026WGranada CF (H) 3–0 · 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.50
xG against (recent avg)0.72
Elo strength rating1659
OviedoEibar
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
2.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.30
0.50
xG against (recent avg)
0.84
0.72
Elo strength rating
1393
1659

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Oviedo

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Eibar

Won 7 in a row Unbeaten 7
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División

Oviedo

2nd best clean sheets (5)

Eibar

Best attack (2.30 goals/game) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Oviedo at home · Eibar away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Oviedo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3

Eibar (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–0D–0L
W 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Oviedo (home)Eibar (away)
W 1
D 2
L 1
W 4
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.50
2.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.50
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
3
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
6.3%
2–1
5.9%
2–0
4.3%
3–1
2.3%
3–0
1.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Eibar 2 wins · 5 draws · Oviedo 3 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

2
5
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Apr 2025 Eibar 1–1 Oviedo Segunda División
29 Sep 2024 Oviedo 1–0 Eibar Segunda División
12 Jun 2024 Eibar 0–2 Oviedo Segunda División
08 Jun 2024 Oviedo 0–0 Eibar Segunda División
02 Jun 2024 Eibar 4–3 Oviedo Segunda División
19 Nov 2023 Oviedo 2–1 Eibar Segunda División
01 Apr 2023 Oviedo 1–1 Eibar Segunda División
11 Dec 2022 Eibar 1–0 Oviedo Segunda División
23 Jul 2022 Oviedo 0–0 Eibar Friendlies Clubs
10 Jan 2022 Oviedo 1–1 Eibar Segunda División

📈 Recent Form

Oviedo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
02/10 Eldense Away 1–4 L
27/09 Sporting Gijon Home 2–0 W
20/09 Sabadell Away 1–3 L
13/09 Valladolid Away 3–0 W
06/09 Burgos Home 0–0 D

Eibar

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Albacete Away 3–1 W
27/09 Las Palmas Home 3–2 W
19/09 Eldense Away 2–1 W
14/09 Celta de Vigo II Away 4–0 W
06/09 Granada CF Home 3–0 W

📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División

Oviedo #10 · 11 pts —  Eibar #1 · 21 pts

Oviedo

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–3L
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3
Yellow cards23
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.30
xG against (avg)0.84
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Eibar

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–0D–1L
W 7
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets4
Failed to score0
Yellow cards15
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.50
xG against (avg)0.72
Corners for (avg)1.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
OviedoEibar
W 3
D 2
L 3
W 7
L 1
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
2.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.90
Clean sheets
5
4
Failed to score
3
0
Yellow cards
23
15
Red cards
1
2
xG for (avg)
1.30
0.50
xG against (avg)
0.84
0.72
Corners for (avg)
4.60
1.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Oviedo

0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
1
scored conceded

Eibar

2
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: Morales Moreno Pablo