Predictions → Spain Segunda División

Real Sociedad II vs Almeria

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 12:00 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Estadio Zubieta • 🌦 16.1°C, 17 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 80% 46.3% 2.13 1xBet 46.7% -0.4 pp
Double Chance 12 72% 73.2% 1.30 William Hill 74.2% -1 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 51.1% 1.65 William Hill 57.7% -6.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 49.9% 1.80 Betano 53.8% -3.9 pp
Correct Score 1-2 63% 7.3% 9.00 Betano 5.5% +1.8 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.5 exp.) Under 9.5 66% 57% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.43 – 1.97 Almeria · expected total 3.41

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Real Sociedad II host Almeria at Estadio Zubieta on Saturday, and the stakes could hardly be more lopsided. The home side sit 19th with 8 points from 9 games, while Almeria are 2nd on 21 points, so this is a basement battle against a promotion push.

The model leans heavily on current form. Real Sociedad II arrive on a run of LLWLL, whereas Almeria have won all five of their last matches, WWWWW. The expected goals split tells the same story: roughly 1.43 for the hosts against 1.97 for the visitors, with recent xG at 1.09 and 1.34 respectively. No injuries are listed for either side, so both should be close to full strength. History also favours Almeria, who won the most recent meeting 5-1 and have taken three of the last four head-to-heads.

The headline tip is an away win, priced at 2.13 with a 46.3 percent model probability and confidence of 80. The double chance covering draw and away lands at 73.2 percent. Both teams to score is rated 51.1 percent at odds of 1.65, while over 2.5 goals sits at 49.9 percent and 1.8. The most likely correct score is 1-2, though at just 7.3 percent it is a thin edge. Corners lean under 9.5 at 57 percent, with an expected 7.5.

The honest caveat: a 46.3 percent away probability at 2.13 implies only modest value, and a trip to Zubieta is rarely a formality. If Almeria's winning run cools, the draw becomes live.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Real Sociedad II

Form (last 5)
LCelta de Vigo II (A) 1–4 · 10/10/2026LGranada CF (H) 2–3 · 04/10/2026WLeicester City U21 (A) 4–0 · 30/09/2026LAD Ceuta FC (A) 1–3 · 26/09/2026LMallorca (H) 0–1 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.72
xG against (recent avg)0.91
Elo strength rating1362

Almeria

Form (last 5)
WBurgos (H) 2–1 · 03/10/2026WMallorca (A) 1–0 · 27/09/2026WCelta de Vigo II (H) 2–0 · 20/09/2026WCordoba (A) 2–0 · 12/09/2026WCadiz (H) 3–2 · 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.34
xG against (recent avg)1.13
Elo strength rating1727
Real Sociedad IIAlmeria
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
0.60
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.72
1.34
xG against (recent avg)
0.91
1.13
Elo strength rating
1362
1727

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Real Sociedad II

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Almeria

Won 5 in a row Unbeaten 5
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División

Real Sociedad II

Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Almeria

3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game)

Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Real Sociedad II at home · Almeria away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Real Sociedad II (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L
D 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Almeria (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–2L
W 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Real Sociedad II (home)Almeria (away)
D 1
L 3
W 2
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
0.50
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
2
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
7.3%
0–2
5.1%
1–3
4.8%
0–1
4.4%
2–3
3.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Almeria 3 wins · 1 draw · Real Sociedad II 0 wins · avg 4 goals · BTTS in 3 of 4

3
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
29 Mar 2026 Almeria 5–1 Real Sociedad II Segunda División
29 Aug 2025 Real Sociedad II 2–2 Almeria Segunda División
13 May 2022 Real Sociedad II 0–2 Almeria Segunda División
21 Oct 2021 Almeria 3–1 Real Sociedad II Segunda División

📈 Recent Form

Real Sociedad II

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Celta de Vigo II Away 1–4 L
04/10 Granada CF Home 2–3 L
30/09 Leicester City U21 Away 4–0 W
26/09 AD Ceuta FC Away 1–3 L
19/09 Mallorca Home 0–1 L

Almeria

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Burgos Home 2–1 W
27/09 Mallorca Away 1–0 W
20/09 Celta de Vigo II Home 2–0 W
12/09 Cordoba Away 2–0 W
06/09 Cadiz Home 3–2 W

📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División

Real Sociedad II #19 · 8 pts —  Almeria #2 · 21 pts

Real Sociedad II

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–5L
W 2
D 2
L 5
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2
Yellow cards25
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.72
xG against (avg)0.91
Corners for (avg)2.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Almeria

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–0D–2L
W 7
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards16
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.34
xG against (avg)1.13
Corners for (avg)2.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
Real Sociedad IIAlmeria
W 2
D 2
L 5
W 7
L 2
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
0.60
Clean sheets
0
4
Failed to score
2
2
Yellow cards
25
16
Red cards
2
1
xG for (avg)
0.72
1.34
xG against (avg)
0.91
1.13
Corners for (avg)
2.80
2.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Real Sociedad II

3
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
2
scored conceded

Almeria

0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws