Predictions β†’ Spain La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna

Next match: Mon, 02 Nov 2026 β€’ 20:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ Estadio Municipal de Riazor β€’ β˜€οΈ 24.7Β°C, 9 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipOddsConfidenceProbabilityMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home β€”80% 47.2% β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X β€”73% 74% β€” β€”
BTTS No β€”79% 45.2% β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 β€”80% 47.3% β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 β€”67% 9.6% β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) Over 9.5 β€”61% 52.1% β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.47 – 0.94 Osasuna Β· expected total 2.42

🧠 Match Preview

Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna meet at the Riazor on Monday night level on 11 points from 9 games, ninth against tenth in La Liga β€” a mid-table collision where both sides will feel three points are there for the taking. The stakes are simple: whoever wins pulls clear of the early-season pack, and the model clearly leans toward the hosts.

What the model sees is a home side in modest form (DLLDD) but with the stronger attacking numbers: 1.4703 expected goals for Deportivo against 0.9448 for Osasuna, backed by recent xG of 1.72 versus 1.15. The visitors arrive on WLDLL and, crucially, both squads are badly depleted β€” nine absentees listed for Deportivo and eight for Osasuna, so depth and rotation will matter. History offers little comfort either way, with the last five meetings split and the most recent a 1-2 Osasuna win back in 2021.

The headline tip is a home win at 47.2 percent with confidence of 80, and the safer route is the double chance 1X at 74 percent. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 lands at 47.3 percent and both teams to score "No" at 45.2, while the correct-score model favours 1-0 at 9.6 percent, with 1-0 (11.91), 2-0 (9.67) and 2-1 (9.13) topping the scoreline list. Corners are the quiet value angle β€” Over 9.5 at 52.1 percent against an expected 9.6.

The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds are quoted here, so value can't be confirmed β€” and with 47.2 percent on the home win and heavy injury lists on both sides, this is a lean, not a lock.

Updated 21 Oct 2026, 19:20 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Deportivo La Coruna

Form (last 5)
DLevante (H) 1–1 Β· 16/10/2026LReal Sociedad (A) 2–3 Β· 11/10/2026LFC Porto (H) 1–3 Β· 02/10/2026DPenafiel (A) 2–2 Β· 25/09/2026DReal Betis (H) 1–1 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.72
xG against (recent avg)1.03
Elo strength rating1392
Players out9

Osasuna

Form (last 5)
WRacing Santander (H) 2–0 Β· 18/10/2026LReal Betis (A) 2–5 Β· 11/10/2026DRayo Vallecano (H) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LAtletico Madrid (A) 0–4 Β· 16/09/2026LEspanyol (H) 0–2 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.15
xG against (recent avg)2.22
Elo strength rating1368
Players out8
Deportivo La CorunaOsasuna
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
2.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.72
1.15
xG against (recent avg)
1.03
2.22
Elo strength rating
1392
1368
Players out
9
8

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Deportivo La Coruna

Winless 7
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Osasuna

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Osasuna

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Deportivo La Coruna at home Β· Osasuna away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Deportivo La Coruna (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–1L
W 1
D 3
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Osasuna (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–3L
W 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)3.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Deportivo La Coruna (home)Osasuna (away)
W 1
D 3
L 1
W 1
L 3
Played
5
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
3.80
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.6%
2–0
7.8%
2–1
7.4%
3–0
3.8%
3–1
3.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Deportivo La Coruna 3 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Osasuna 3 wins Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 9

3
3
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
16 Dec 2021 Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Osasuna Copa del Rey
13 Apr 2019 Osasuna 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna Segunda DivisiΓ³n
24 Nov 2018 Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Osasuna Segunda DivisiΓ³n
30 Apr 2017 Osasuna 2–2 Deportivo La Coruna La Liga
18 Dec 2016 Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Osasuna La Liga
20 Jan 2013 Osasuna 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna La Liga
20 Aug 2012 Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Osasuna La Liga
02 Mar 2011 Osasuna 0–0 Deportivo La Coruna La Liga
17 Oct 2010 Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 Osasuna La Liga

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Deportivo La Coruna

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
16/10 Levante Home 1–1 D
11/10 Real Sociedad Away 2–3 L
02/10 FC Porto Home 1–3 L
25/09 Penafiel Away 2–2 D
20/09 Real Betis Home 1–1 D

Osasuna

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 Racing Santander Home 2–0 W
11/10 Real Betis Away 2–5 L
19/09 Rayo Vallecano Home 1–1 D
16/09 Atletico Madrid Away 0–4 L
12/09 Espanyol Home 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna #9 Β· 11 pts β€”  Osasuna #10 Β· 11 pts

Deportivo La Coruna

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–2L
W 2
D 5
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards18
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.72
xG against (avg)1.03
Corners for (avg)7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Osasuna

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–4L
W 3
D 2
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards24
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.15
xG against (avg)2.22
Corners for (avg)2.70
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0
Deportivo La CorunaOsasuna
W 2
D 5
L 2
W 3
D 2
L 4
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
2.00
Clean sheets
0
3
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
18
24
Red cards
3
0
xG for (avg)
1.72
1.15
xG against (avg)
1.03
2.22
Corners for (avg)
7.40
2.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
4/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Deportivo La Coruna

1
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
5
scored conceded

Osasuna

3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Deportivo La Coruna

  • ❌ N. Carrillo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Y. Hernandez β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ A. Traore β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Altimira β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Angelino β€” Red Card
  • ❌ L. Amatucci β€” Red Card
  • ❌ P. Aubameyang β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Casado β€” Collarbone injury
  • ❌ Z. Eddahchouri β€” Wrist Injury

Osasuna

  • ❌ V. Rosier β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Herrando β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Oroz β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Gomez β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ A. Bonel β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ R. Del Castillo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ K. Barja β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ R. Moro β€” Muscle Injury

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