Alaves vs Malaga

Alaves host Malaga at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Friday night with the two clubs separated by seven points after eight rounds. The hosts sit 7th on 11 points, while Malaga are bottom of the table, 20th with just 4 points, and arrive desperate for any kind of lift.

The model leans firmly toward the home side, giving Alaves a 62 percent win probability at 86 percent confidence, with the double chance 1X rated at 85.3 percent. The expected goals picture explains why: Alaves carry a home figure of 1.3896 against Malaga's away mark of just 0.4874, and recent form backs the gap, with the hosts at 0.92 xG against 0.7 for the visitors. Alaves' last five read LDLLW, Malaga's DLLDD, so neither is flying, but the table and the underlying numbers point one way. Both squads are heavily depleted, with seven Alaves names and fourteen Malaga names listed as unavailable, which is the biggest wildcard here.

For bettors, the correct score market flags 1-0 as the headline pick at 17.3 percent, with 2-0 at 14.79 and 2-1 at 7.21. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 55.3 percent, and both teams to score points to No at 56.2 percent, consistent with Malaga's blunt away attack. Corners offer a separate angle, with Over 9.5 at 52.2 percent against an expected 9.6. The honest caveat: with no bookmaker odds quoted in this snapshot, we cannot confirm where the value actually sits, and a fixture this injury-hit can swing on lineup news alone.