Granada CF vs Valladolid

Granada host Valladolid in Segunda División round 11 on Friday 23 October 2026, with the two sides separated by just two points in mid-table. Granada sit 10th on 14 points from 9 games, Valladolid 11th on 12, so this is a chance for the hosts to pull clear of a direct rival.

The model leans home. Granada's recent form reads WWLLD, Valladolid's WDWDL, and the expected goals split is telling: 2.0212 for Granada against 1.3053 for Valladolid, though recent xG is tighter at 1.22 versus 0.89. No injuries are listed for either side. The head-to-head is volatile — Granada won the last meeting 5-1 in February 2026, but Valladolid took the November 2025 fixture 2-1.

The headline tip is a Granada win at 54.1 percent with 83 confidence. Double chance 12 lands at 73.5 percent, the safest angle here. Both teams to score is favoured at 55.8 percent, and over 2.5 goals at 51.2 percent — modest edges rather than convictions. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 7.6 percent, with 2-0 (7.38), 3-1 (6.49), 1-0 (6.35) and 3-0 (4.97) behind it. Corners point under 9.5 at 52 percent against an expected 9.5.

Value, if any, hides in the home win and the over — both sit just above a coin flip, so any bookmaker price above even money on Granada is worth a look. The honest caveat: 54.1 percent is not dominance, Valladolid's away form is stubborn, and a low-scoring draw would sink both the match result and the goals tips. Stake accordingly.