Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 16:00 UTC+3 • Round 13 • 🌦 9.4°C, 11 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Betano1.75 | 58% | +1.5% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.21 | 82.6% | -0.1% |
| BTTS | No | BetVictor1.90 | 55.7% · Yes 44.3% | +5.8% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1xBet1.95 | 52% · Over 48% | +1.4% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Betano6.60 | 13.6% | -10.2% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.3 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 59.7% · Over 40.3% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Burgos · Home
Burgos have taken two of their last three home matches, including a 1-0 win over Sabadell, and their most recent meeting with Celta de Vigo II finished 1-0 in their favour. Their model expected goals of 1.64 for this fixture is well above their recent weighted xG of 1.08.
Celta de Vigo II · Away
Celta de Vigo II have conceded in all five recent matches, including a 1-5 loss at Girona and a 2-3 defeat at Sporting Gijon, and their model expected goals of 0.77 is the lowest figure in this matchup. They did draw 1-1 in the earlier head-to-head.
Burgos edge a tight home fixture
The clearest signal is the contrast between Burgos's home record and Celta de Vigo II's away results. Burgos won 1-0 at home to Sabadell and drew 1-1 with Castellón, while Celta de Vigo II lost 1-5 at Girona and 2-3 at Sporting Gijon. The latest head-to-head, a 1-0 Burgos win, supports a low-margin home outcome, and the 1-0 correct-score pick fits that pattern. The evidence supports Burgos win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Burgos 1.64 – 0.77 Celta de Vigo II · expected total 2.41
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Burgos
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Segunda División
Burgos
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Celta de Vigo II
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Burgos at home · Celta de Vigo II away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Burgos (home)
Celta de Vigo II (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Burgos 1 win · 1 draw · Celta de Vigo II 0 wins · avg 1.5 goals · BTTS in 1 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May 2021 | Burgos | 1–0 | Celta de Vigo II | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| 18 Apr 2021 | Celta de Vigo II | 1–1 | Burgos | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
📈 Recent Form
Burgos
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Castellón | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 26/10 | FC Andorra | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 18/10 | Sabadell | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 12/10 | Granada CF | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 03/10 | Almeria | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Eldense | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Las Palmas | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 11/09 | AD Ceuta FC | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Oviedo | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 31/08 | Real Sociedad II | Home | 2–2 | D |
Celta de Vigo II
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Cordoba | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 24/10 | Girona | Away | 1–5 | L |
| 19/10 | Tenerife | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 10/10 | Real Sociedad II | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 04/10 | Sporting Gijon | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 26/09 | Sabadell | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 20/09 | Almeria | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 14/09 | Eibar | Home | 0–4 | L |
| 05/09 | AD Ceuta FC | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 31/08 | Castellón | Home | 1–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Segunda División
Burgos #7 · 21 pts · Celta de Vigo II #15 · 13 pts
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws