Burgos vs Sabadell
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • Round 10 • ☀️ 5.8°C, 19 km/h clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.57 → 2.75 ▲7% | 75% | 33.6% | 2.75 | Bet365 | 35.8% | -2.2 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 70% | 70% | 1.44 | Betano | 66.8% | +3.2 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 48.4% | 2.20 | Bet365 | 44.3% | +4.1 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 48.7% | 1.57 | 1xBet | 63.2% | -14.5 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 64% | 7.8% | 6.80 | Betano | 7.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 67% | 27.9% | 3.14 | 1xBet | 31% | -3.1 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 60% | 52.1% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Burgos 1.48 – 1.11 Sabadell · expected total 2.59
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The form lines point in opposite directions. Burgos arrive on LLWWW, a slow start flipped into three straight wins, and their recent expected goals of 0.92 suggest those results have come with a modest attacking output. Sabadell's WDDWL is steadier than it looks, and their recent expected goals of 1.52 actually outstrip the home side's, even if their season-long away figure of 1.1087 trails Burgos's 1.4806. No injuries are listed for either squad, and there is no recent head-to-head history to lean on.
The model leans home: a Burgos win is priced at 33.6% with odds of 2.75, and the double chance 1X lands at 70%, which is where the safest value sits. The draw is rated 27.9% at 67 confidence, so it is live rather than likely. Goals look scarce, with Under 2.5 at 48.7% and odds of 1.57, while both teams to score is only 48.4% at 2.2. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 at 9.89%, and corners are expected to edge over 9.5 at 52.1%.
The honest caveat: a 33.6% home probability is not a strong edge, and Sabadell's superior recent expected goals mean the 1X is the more defensible play than the outright win.
Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Burgos
Sabadell
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Burgos
Sabadell
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División
Burgos
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Sabadell
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Burgos at home · Sabadell away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Burgos (home)
Sabadell (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
📈 Recent Form
Burgos
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Granada CF | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 03/10 | Almeria | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 27/09 | Eldense | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Las Palmas | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 11/09 | AD Ceuta FC | Home | 3–1 | W |
Sabadell
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | AD Ceuta FC | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 04/10 | FC Andorra | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | Celta de Vigo II | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 20/09 | Oviedo | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 13/09 | Mallorca | Away | 0–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
Burgos #8 · 14 pts — Sabadell #5 · 16 pts
Burgos
Sabadell
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Burgos
Sabadell
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws