Cordoba vs Eibar

Cordoba host Eibar in Round 11 of the Segunda División, and the table tells a stark story: the visitors sit 2nd on 21 points from 9 games, while the hosts are 18th on 9 points. Form backs it up — Eibar arrive on a run of LWWWW, Cordoba have stumbled through LWLWL.

The model leans away. Eibar are given a 39.4 percent win probability at a confidence of 78, with the double chance covering a draw or away win at 69.3 percent. Expected goals point the same direction: Cordoba generate 1.2066 at home, Eibar 1.4942 on the road, though recent shot quality is interesting — Cordoba's recent xG reads 1.39 against Eibar's 0.88, a reminder that the visitors' form has been more efficient than dominant. No injuries are listed for either side.

For goals, the model calls Over 2.5 at 51.4 percent and both teams to score at 52.5 percent, while corners are expected to stay low — Under 9.5 at 56.4 percent with an expected 7.7. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 7.1 percent, with 0-1 and 0-2 close behind. The value question is whether bookmakers price Eibar's win above the model's 39.4 percent; if the away odds imply less than that, the away win is the play, with the double chance as the safer route.

The honest caveat: Cordoba's recent xG of 1.39 is higher than Eibar's 0.88, and the head-to-head is mixed — a 0-0 and a Cordoba 2-1 win sit among Eibar's victories. This is a form-versus-underlying-numbers spot, so stake accordingly.