Valladolid vs Castellón
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 • 16:00 UTC+3 • Round 14 • ☀️ 14.5°C, 8 km/h clear
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Current price not available | 25.1% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 63.9% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 66.3% · No 33.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 36% · Over 64% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Current price not available | 11.1% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.3 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 51.8% · Over 48.2% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Valladolid · Home
Valladolid have scored in all five recent matches, including a 5-0 win over Albacete and a 3-1 win over Cordoba, but their latest outing was a 1-2 loss at Granada. Their recent xG for of 2.43 sits above the model expected goals of 1.69 for this fixture.
Castellón · Away
Castellón have conceded only 3 goals across their last five matches, with clean sheets in the 4-0 win over Sporting Gijon and the 3-0 win at Las Palmas. They failed to score only once in that run, the 0-1 loss at FC Andorra.
H2H Splits Point To Draw
The latest head-to-head is the standout: Valladolid lost 0-4 at home to Castellón on 8 Feb 2026, while the earlier meeting finished 0-1 to Valladolid. Valladolid's five recent matches produced 13 goals for and 8 against, yet Castellón's 3 goals conceded in five suggest a tighter contest than that H2H scoreline implies. The 1-1 correct-score pick fits both the H2H split and Castellón's low concession rate. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Valladolid 1.69 – 1.62 Castellón · expected total 3.30
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Valladolid
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Valladolid
Castellón
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Segunda División
Valladolid
Castellón
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Valladolid at home · Castellón away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Valladolid (home)
Castellón (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Castellón 1 win · 0 draws · Valladolid 1 win · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 0 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 2026 | Valladolid | 0–4 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Castellón | 0–1 | Valladolid | Segunda División |
📈 Recent Form
Valladolid
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Granada CF | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Eldense | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 12/10 | Albacete | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 04/10 | Las Palmas | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 27/09 | Cordoba | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 20/09 | AD Ceuta FC | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Oviedo | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 05/09 | FC Andorra | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 30/08 | Cadiz | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 23/08 | Eibar | Away | 0–1 | L |
Castellón
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Burgos | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 25/10 | Sporting Gijon | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 17/10 | Las Palmas | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 11/10 | FC Andorra | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 04/10 | AD Ceuta FC | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 28/09 | Leganes | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Tenerife | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Girona | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Albacete | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 31/08 | Celta de Vigo II | Away | 2–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Segunda División
Valladolid #16 · 12 pts · Castellón #1 · 27 pts
Valladolid
Castellón
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Valladolid
Castellón
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws