Las Palmas vs Castellón
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Estadio de Gran Canaria • ⛅ 23.5°C, 14 km/h partly cloudy
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away 2.02 → 2.05 ▲1% | 80% | 46% | 2.05 | Betano | 48.7% | -2.7 pp |
| Double Chance | X2 | 69% | 69.6% | 1.33 | Betano | 73.2% | -3.6 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 49.7% | 1.55 | William Hill | 60.8% | -11.1 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 47.8% | 1.66 | Pinnacle | 58.4% | -10.6 pp |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 64% | 7.8% | 9.50 | Betano | 5.3% | +2.5 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.6% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Las Palmas 1.12 – 1.46 Castellón · expected total 2.58
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans into that momentum. Castellón's recent expected goals sit at 2.42 against Las Palmas' 1.4, and the goal expectations for this fixture come out at 1.4618 for the away side versus 1.1153 for the hosts. No injuries are listed for either squad, so there is no obvious disruption to factor in. The head-to-head is mixed, with the last two meetings producing a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 Castellón win.
The headline tip is an away victory at 46 percent, priced at 2.05, and the double chance X2 lands at 69.6 percent, which is where the safer value sits. Both teams to score is called at 49.7 percent with odds of 1.55, while over 2.5 goals comes in at 47.8 percent at 1.66. The correct-score model favours 0-1 at 7.8 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 close behind. Corners point to over 9.5, with an expected 10.3 and a 53.6 percent probability.
The honest caveat: a 46 percent away win is far from dominant, and Las Palmas at home with nothing to lose can easily drag this into the draw that the X2 tip is partly protecting against.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Las Palmas
Castellón
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Las Palmas
Castellón
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División
Las Palmas
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Castellón
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Las Palmas at home · Castellón away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Las Palmas (home)
Castellón (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Castellón 2 wins · 1 draw · Las Palmas 2 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 2 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Las Palmas | 1–1 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Castellón | 1–0 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 27 Feb 2021 | Castellón | 4–0 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 21 Oct 2020 | Las Palmas | 2–1 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 17 Dec 2019 | Castellón | 0–2 | Las Palmas | Copa del Rey |
📈 Recent Form
Las Palmas
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Valladolid | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 27/09 | Eibar | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 20/09 | Burgos | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Cadiz | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 04/09 | Leganes | Home | 0–0 | D |
Castellón
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | AD Ceuta FC | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 28/09 | Leganes | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Tenerife | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Girona | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Albacete | Home | 2–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
Las Palmas #14 · 11 pts — Castellón #3 · 20 pts
Las Palmas
Castellón
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Las Palmas
Castellón
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws