Valladolid vs Eldense
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 10 • ☀️ 12.7°C, 21 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.04 → 1.95 ▼4% | 82% | 50.2% | 1.95 | Betano | 51.2% | -1 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 76% | 78.5% | 1.26 | Betano | 77.8% | +0.7 pp |
| BTTS | No | 85% | 57.6% | 1.90 | Betano | 49.7% | +7.9 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 85% | 57.4% | 1.80 | Betano | 53.5% | +3.9 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 77% | 15.6% | 6.60 | Betano | 7.2% | +8.4 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 62% | 53.4% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Valladolid 1.16 – 0.62 Eldense · expected total 1.77
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans firmly toward the home side. Valladolid's recent form reads DWDLW, Eldense's WWLLW, and the underlying numbers favour the hosts: an expected goals figure of 1.1575 for Valladolid against just 0.6168 for Eldense. Recent xG is tighter, at 0.89 for the home side and 0.96 for the visitors, which tempers the gap somewhat. There are no listed injuries on either side, and the head-to-head record is a perfect split, with Valladolid winning 1-0 in April 2024 and Eldense taking a 0-1 away win in October 2023.
The headline tip is a home win at 47.5% probability, priced at 2.04, with confidence at 81. Double chance 1X carries 78.5%, the safest route. Both teams to score is tipped No at 57.6%, and Under 2.5 goals at 57.4% fits a low-scoring profile. The correct score leans 1-0 at 15.6%, with 1-0 the top individual scoreline at 18.42. Corners are tipped Under 9.5 at 53.4%, with an expected 8.9.
The value question is whether 2.04 adequately rewards a 47.5% shot. The caveat: recent xG is nearly level, so the home edge rests more on season-long output than current form, and Eldense have won two of their last five.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Valladolid
Eldense
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Valladolid
Eldense
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Valladolid at home · Eldense away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Valladolid (home)
Eldense (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Eldense 0 wins · 0 draws · Valladolid 2 wins · avg 1 goals · BTTS in 0 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2024 | Valladolid | 1–0 | Eldense | Segunda División |
| 04 Oct 2023 | Eldense | 0–1 | Valladolid | Segunda División |
📈 Recent Form
Valladolid
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Las Palmas | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 27/09 | Cordoba | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 20/09 | AD Ceuta FC | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Oviedo | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 05/09 | FC Andorra | Home | 1–0 | W |
Eldense
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Cordoba | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 02/10 | Oviedo | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 27/09 | Burgos | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 19/09 | Eibar | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Sporting Gijon | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
Valladolid #17 · 9 pts — Eldense #12 · 11 pts
Valladolid
Eldense
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Valladolid
Eldense
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws