Eibar vs Mallorca
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:15 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Estadio Municipal de Ipurua • 🌦 15°C, 16 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 76% | 36.4% | 2.69 | 1xBet | 35.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 72% | 72.7% | — | — | 70.9% | +1.8 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 49.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 50.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 63% | 7.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 61% | 27.1% | 3.26 | 1xBet | 29.1% | -2 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 65% | 56.2% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Eibar 1.91 – 1.28 Mallorca · expected total 3.19
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily on Eibar's momentum: five wins from five, a home scoring rate of 1.9119 expected goals, and no injury concerns. Mallorca's recent form reads DLWWD, and their away expected goals of 1.2768 sit below the hosts' output, though their recent xG of 1.35 is actually higher than Eibar's recent 0.88 — a warning sign that the league leaders may be riding results rather than dominance. History offers little comfort either: Mallorca won the last three head-to-head meetings, including 1-2 at Ipurua in 2022 and 2020.
The headline tip is a home win at 36.4 percent, priced at 2.69, with confidence of 76. The double chance covering home and draw lands at 72.7 percent, which is where the safer money sits. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 49.3 percent, and over 2.5 goals edges past the line at 50.7 percent. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7.6 percent, with 2-0 (7.56) and 1-0 (6.9) close behind. Corners look low, with 7.8 expected and under 9.5 at 56.2 percent.
The honest risk: that 36.4 percent home probability is modest, and the 27.1 percent draw carries 61 confidence. Eibar's recent xG of 0.88 suggests the perfect run could stall against a side that has owned this fixture.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Eibar
Mallorca
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Eibar
Mallorca
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División
Eibar
Mallorca
Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Eibar at home · Mallorca away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Eibar (home)
Mallorca (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Eibar 0 wins · 0 draws · Mallorca 3 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan 2022 | Eibar | 1–2 | Mallorca | Copa del Rey |
| 07 Mar 2020 | Eibar | 1–2 | Mallorca | La Liga |
| 17 Aug 2019 | Mallorca | 2–1 | Eibar | La Liga |
📈 Recent Form
Eibar
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Albacete | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 27/09 | Las Palmas | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 19/09 | Eldense | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 14/09 | Celta de Vigo II | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 06/09 | Granada CF | Home | 3–0 | W |
Mallorca
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Girona | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 27/09 | Almeria | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 19/09 | Real Sociedad II | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 13/09 | Sabadell | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Eldense | Away | 0–0 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División
Eibar #1 · 21 pts — Mallorca #4 · 17 pts
Eibar
Mallorca
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Eibar
Mallorca
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws