Predictions → Spain Segunda División

Granada CF vs Cadiz

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 14:15 UTC+3 • Round 10 • ⛅ 21.7°C, 10 km/h, 0.1mm partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.85 → 1.88 ▲2% 83% 55% 1.88 Betano 53.3% +1.7 pp
Double Chance 1X 78% 81.5% 1.24 Betano 78.7% +2.8 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.6% 1.93 Betano 48.9% +0.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 53.8% 1.85 Betano 53% +0.8 pp
Correct Score 1-0 76% 15% 7.00 Bet365 7.1% +7.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.7% 2.02 Betano 46.4% +6.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Granada CF 1.36 – 0.61 Cadiz · expected total 1.98

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Granada host Cadiz in Segunda División round 10 knowing a win would strengthen their mid-table footing, while the visitors arrive desperate for points near the bottom. The model leans clearly toward the home side, giving Granada a 55 percent chance of victory at odds of 1.88, with confidence rated 83. The double chance 1X sits at 81.5 percent, underlining how little the numbers trust Cadiz on the road.

Form supports that read. Granada have gone WWLLD across their last five, while Cadiz have managed just LWDLL. The expected goals tell a similar story: Granada are projected at 1.3633 against Cadiz's 0.6123, with recent xG of 1.22 and 0.93 respectively. Granada sit 10th on 14 points from 9 games; Cadiz are 20th with 7 points from 9. Neither side reports injuries, so no selection headaches distort the picture. The head-to-head is mixed, with Cadiz winning the most recent meeting 2-0 in August 2026, but Granada took a 2-1 win in January 2026.

The tips point toward a low-scoring home win. Under 2.5 goals carries a 53.8 percent probability at 1.85, while both teams to score is tipped No at 49.6 percent and 1.93. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 17.76 percent, part of a top-score cluster that includes 2-0 at 12.89 and 2-1 at 7.9. Corners offer a separate angle: over 9.5 is tipped with an expected 9.8 and 52.7 percent probability.

Value may hide in the home win at 1.88 given the 55 percent model probability, and in the under 2.5 line where the price sits close to a coin-flip call. The honest caveat: Cadiz won this fixture 2-0 only two months ago, and a 55 percent home probability is far from certainty, so stake accordingly.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Granada CF

Form (last 5)
WBurgos (A) 1–0 · 12/10/2026WReal Sociedad II (A) 3–2 · 04/10/2026LFC Andorra (H) 2–3 · 26/09/2026LLeganes (A) 2–3 · 20/09/2026DAlbacete (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.38
xG against (recent avg)0.40
Elo strength rating1463

Cadiz

Form (last 5)
LSporting Gijon (H) 0–1 · 11/10/2026WLeganes (H) 4–0 · 03/10/2026DTenerife (A) 1–1 · 26/09/2026LGirona (H) 1–2 · 19/09/2026LLas Palmas (H) 0–1 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.66
xG against (recent avg)1.17
Elo strength rating1339
Granada CFCadiz
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.38
0.66
xG against (recent avg)
0.40
1.17
Elo strength rating
1463
1339

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Granada CF

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Cadiz

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Segunda División

Granada CF

3rd best BTTS rate (67%)

Cadiz

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 22 Segunda División teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Granada CF at home · Cadiz away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Granada CF (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Cadiz (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–1L
D 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Granada CF (home)Cadiz (away)
W 1
D 1
L 1
D 2
L 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
2.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
15%
2–0
10.9%
2–1
6.7%
3–0
4.9%
3–1
3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Cadiz 3 wins · 5 draws · Granada CF 2 wins · avg 1.3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10

3
5
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Aug 2026 Cadiz 2–0 Granada CF Friendlies Clubs
24 Jan 2026 Cadiz 1–2 Granada CF Segunda División
25 Oct 2025 Granada CF 0–0 Cadiz Segunda División
26 Jul 2025 Cadiz 1–1 Granada CF Friendlies Clubs
16 Mar 2025 Cadiz 1–0 Granada CF Segunda División
23 Nov 2024 Granada CF 0–0 Cadiz Segunda División
29 Mar 2024 Cadiz 1–0 Granada CF La Liga
03 Jan 2024 Granada CF 2–0 Cadiz La Liga
28 Feb 2022 Granada CF 0–0 Cadiz La Liga
13 Dec 2021 Cadiz 1–1 Granada CF La Liga

📈 Recent Form

Granada CF

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/10 Burgos Away 1–0 W
04/10 Real Sociedad II Away 3–2 W
26/09 FC Andorra Home 2–3 L
20/09 Leganes Away 2–3 L
12/09 Albacete Home 1–1 D

Cadiz

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Sporting Gijon Home 0–1 L
03/10 Leganes Home 4–0 W
26/09 Tenerife Away 1–1 D
19/09 Girona Home 1–2 L
12/09 Las Palmas Home 0–1 L

📊 Season Comparison — Segunda División

Granada CF #10 · 14 pts —  Cadiz #20 · 7 pts

Granada CF

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–3L
W 4
D 2
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2
Yellow cards19
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.38
xG against (avg)0.40
Corners for (avg)7.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Cadiz

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–4D–4L
W 1
D 4
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards29
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.66
xG against (avg)1.17
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Granada CFCadiz
W 4
D 2
L 3
W 1
D 4
L 4
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.20
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
2
3
Yellow cards
19
29
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.38
0.66
xG against (avg)
0.40
1.17
Corners for (avg)
7.00
3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Granada CF

5
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
4
scored conceded

Cadiz

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Segunda División predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws