Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 16:00 UTC+3 • Round 8 • Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • 🌦 15.4°C, 9 km/h, 0.7mm showers
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.37 → 1.33 ▼3% | 92% | 80.3% | 1.33 | Betano | 76.7% | +3.6 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 77% | 79.7% | 1.09 | Betano | 91.7% | -12 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 85% | 56.9% | 1.93 | Betano | 49.2% | +7.7 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 57.9% | 1.63 | 1xBet | 59.6% | -1.7 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 63% | 7.2% | 9.25 | Betano | 5.5% | +1.7 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.2% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.52 – 1.28 Alanyaspor · expected total 3.80
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily on home form and attacking output. Fenerbahçe arrive on a WWWDD run and are expected to generate 2.5241 goals, backed by recent expected goals of 2.63. Alanyaspor's DWDWL form is more mixed, and their away expected goals of 1.32 sit close to their match expectation of 1.2806. The hosts' injury list is long — Diouf, Ederson, Gunok, Musaba, Oosterwolde, Soyuncu, Livakovic, Akturkoglu, Asensio, Talisca and Muldur are all flagged — while Alanyaspor are missing only Maestro. Recent head-to-heads have been lively: 2-3, 2-2, 0-2, 3-0 and 2-2.
The headline tip is a home win at 80.3% probability, priced at 1.33. Double chance 1X comes in at 79.7%. Over 2.5 goals is rated 57.9% and available at 1.63, while BTTS Yes sits at 56.9% at 1.93 — that's arguably where the value hides, since the model's edge over the odds is more generous there than on the short home price. The correct-score pick is 2-1 at 7.2%, with 3-1 and 2-0 close behind. Corners are expected to reach 10.1, giving Over 9.5 a 53.2% chance.
The honest caveat: that Fenerbahçe injury list is enormous, and a patched-up lineup could easily underperform the model's attacking projection. Treat the short home odds with care.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Fenerbahçe
Alanyaspor
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Fenerbahçe
Alanyaspor
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Fenerbahçe
Alanyaspor
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Fenerbahçe at home · Alanyaspor away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe (home)
Alanyaspor (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Alanyaspor 0 wins · 2 draws · Fenerbahçe 8 wins · avg 4.1 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Alanyaspor | 2–3 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Fenerbahçe | 2–2 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 09 Feb 2025 | Alanyaspor | 0–2 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Fenerbahçe | 3–0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 11 Feb 2024 | Fenerbahçe | 2–2 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Alanyaspor | 0–1 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 19 Mar 2023 | Alanyaspor | 1–3 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 07 Dec 2022 | Alanyaspor | 2–4 | Fenerbahçe | Friendlies Clubs |
| 18 Sep 2022 | Fenerbahçe | 5–0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Alanyaspor | 2–5 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Fenerbahçe
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Rizespor | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Turan | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Eyüpspor | Home | 8–0 | W |
| 14/09 | Gaziantep FK | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 10/09 | AS Roma | Home | 1–1 | D |
Alanyaspor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Erzurumspor FK | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 19/09 | Çorum FK | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Göztepe | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 07/09 | Rizespor | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 30/08 | Eyüpspor | Away | 1–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Fenerbahçe #4 · 13 pts — Alanyaspor #6 · 12 pts
Fenerbahçe
Alanyaspor
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Fenerbahçe
Alanyaspor
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Fenerbahçe
- ❌ A. Diouf — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ Ederson — Illness
- ❌ M. Gunok — Muscle Injury
- ❌ A. Musaba — Injury
- ❌ J. Oosterwolde — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ C. Soyuncu — Injury
- ❌ D. Livakovic — Transfer negotiations
- ❌ K. Akturkoglu — Concussion
- ❌ M. Asensio — Muscle Injury
- ❌ Talisca — Inactive
- ❌ M. Muldur — Knee Injury
Alanyaspor
- ❌ Maestro — Thigh Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws