Our model gives Fenerbahçe win a 92% confidence rating
Turkey Süper Lig Predictions and Betting Tips
Upcoming Matches • Next 20 Days • 1 Matches • Round 7 • Updated 19 minutes ago • UTC+3
Regular Season, Round 7
Friday, October 09
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 20:00 | LWLWW | DWDDW | 85% | 58.4% | Home ✅ | N/A | 3 – 1 FT |
Saturday, October 10
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 13:30 | LLLDW | WWDWL | 77% | 37.8% | Away ❌ | N/A | 2 – 2 FT | |
| 10/10 16:00 | WDWLW | WLWDL | 83% | 54.1% | Home ❌ | @2.00 | 0 – 0 FT | |
| 10/10 16:00 | LLLLW | WLWLL | 80% | 46.2% | Away ✅ | @1.99 | 0 – 3 FT | |
| 10/10 19:00 | DWLWL | WDDLW | 76% | 34.7% | Away ✅ | N/A | 0 – 3 FT |
Sunday, October 11
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 13:30 | DDWLL | WLLDL | 77% | 37.7% | Home ❌ | N/A | 0 – 0 FT | |
| 11/10 16:00 | LDWLW | LWWLL | 75% | 32.7% | Home ❌ | @2.61 | 0 – 3 FT | |
| 11/10 19:00 | LWWWW | WLWWW | 87% | 63.8% | Home ✅ | N/A | 2 – 1 FT |
Today - Monday, October 12
| Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | LLLWL | DDLLL | 80% | 46.8% | Away | 1.95 | — |
Top Trends from Süper Lig Teams
Our model gives Galatasaray win a 89% confidence rating
Our model gives Beşiktaş win a 88% confidence rating
Our model gives Erzurumspor FK win a 87% confidence rating
Our model gives Başakşehir win a 86% confidence rating
Amed are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in 9 of their 10 most recent matches
Predictlix Süper Lig Insights
Data-driven football analysis updated on: October 9, 2026
Match Outcome Confidence Map
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor carries the window's highest model probability at 81%, with a 92 confidence rating and a +5.2pp edge at odds of 1.29. The PredictLix model also flags Amed vs Konyaspor at 70.3% and Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor at 62.3%, both driven by strong home attacking numbers. Back Beşiktaş to win at 1.29, the standout high-confidence pick.
Model Track Record in This League
Across 72 settled matches in this league, the PredictLix model has landed 36.1% of match winner calls, a 26/72 return. That sample sits well under 50, so treat these figures as early signals rather than proof. Double chance stands at 84.7% (61/72), while BTTS and Over/Under 2.5 both hit 54.2% (39/72). Correct score trails at 2.8% (2/72), and draw picks manage just 16.7% (5/30).
Goals Landscape — Over/Under Breakdown
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor leans Over 2.5 at 56.8%, the strongest goals signal in this window, with home and away lambdas of 2.3531 and 1.3464. Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş also favours Over at 52.3%, reflecting lambdas of 1.7415 and 1.264. By contrast, Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa tilts Under 2.5 at 57.8%, since Eyüpspor's 0.6699 lambda signals a blunt attack. Best angle: Over 2.5 in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor at 56.8% confidence.
Streak & Momentum Signals
Galatasaray's form line reads LWWWW, yet the trend engine flags Kasımpaşa as unbeaten in their last 10 matches, a curious collision of streaks. Alanyaspor sit unbeaten in 8 of their 10 most recent outings. Amed's WWDWL underpins a 89% confidence rating on their win. Samsunspor's LLLLW and Göztepe's DDLLL expose relegation-zone slumps. Three fixtures carry partial data, so treat those samples with caution.
Defensive Lines — Clean Sheets vs Leaky Defences
Eyüpspor's defensive numbers stand out for the wrong reasons, conceding 2.7 goals per game with no clean sheets across six outings. Samsunspor and Göztepe also leak heavily at 2.2 and 2 goals conceded respectively. By contrast, Kocaelispor and Kasımpaşa look far tighter, shipping just 0.7 and 0.8 per game with three and two clean sheets. Amed and Fenerbahçe share that same 0.8 figure, underlining their resilience.
Standings Context & Match Motivation
Amed sit top on 13 points with a Champions League spot, yet Konyaspor arrive fighting a relegation battle needing points. Down at the bottom, Samsunspor and Göztepe both occupy the RELEGATION ZONE and must win, so their Regular Season - 8 ties carry real desperation. Beşiktaş, third and chasing a Champions League spot, travel to Trabzonspor in mid-table, while Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor meet in a European spot clash.
Accumulator Builder & Value Picks
Beşiktaş and Galatasaray both carry 92 confidence, and the PredictLix model pairs them with Fenerbahçe's trip to Rizespor in a three-leg accumulator. Home wins for Galatasaray at 1.3 and Beşiktaş at 1.29 sit alongside an away success for Fenerbahçe at 1.75. Combined odds for all three legs come to 2.93 exactly. Back this treble at 2.93, though note the model's 52.4% hit rate on high-confidence picks suggests modest stakes.
Model vs Market — Value Edges
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor stands out, where the PredictLix model rates the home win at 81% against an implied 75.8%, a +5.2pp edge at odds of 1.29. Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK shows 52.3% versus 47.3%, a +5pp edge at 2.05. Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa adds +3.7pp, with 79.9% against 76.2% at 1.3. A positive edge signals long-term value, not a guaranteed winner in this specific match. Back Galatasaray at 1.3 with 92 confidence.
AI Prediction Accuracy — Season 2026/27
Live accuracy tracking across all prediction types — wins and losses shown, nothing removed. Updated automatically after each matchday.
Recent Form — Last 30 Days
Probability Calibration — Does 70% Really Mean 70%?
Predicted probability vs how often the pick actually landed. Close match = honest probabilities.
| Market | Predicted | Actual | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) · <60% | 44.6% | 41.7% | 48 |
| Match Result (1X2) · 60-69% | 63.0% | 100.0% | 3 |
| Match Result (1X2) · 70-79% | 77.1% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Both Teams to Score · 60-69% | 64.2% | 83.3% | 6 |
| Both Teams to Score · <60% | 53.5% | 52.2% | 46 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · 70-79% | 74.6% | 100.0% | 2 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · <60% | 52.7% | 54.8% | 42 |
| Over / Under 2.5 · 60-69% | 64.6% | 75.0% | 8 |
| Correct Score · <60% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 52 |
| Double Chance · 60-69% | 67.9% | 83.3% | 6 |
| Double Chance · 70-79% | 74.8% | 85.7% | 42 |
| Double Chance · 80+% | 82.9% | 100.0% | 4 |
| Draw Predictions · <60% | 27.9% | 15.4% | 13 |
| Corners Over/Under · <60% | 54.9% | 40.0% | 20 |
| Corners Over/Under · 80+% | 88.9% | 25.0% | 4 |
| Corners Over/Under · 60-69% | 64.6% | 45.5% | 11 |
| Corners Over/Under · 70-79% | 76.7% | 60.0% | 5 |
Live accuracy updates after each confirmed result. Minimum sample sizes may affect early-season figures.
Previous Round Results: Regular Season, Round 6
| Date / Time | Home Form | Match | Away Form | Confidence | Probability | Prediction | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 20:00 | DWDDW | DWLLL | 79% | 46.3% | Home ❌ | @2.45 | 0 – 0 FT | |
| 19/09 17:00 | WWLLD | DWLWD | 78% | 45% | Home ❌ | @2.16 | 1 – 2 FT | |
| 19/09 17:00 | LWWWL | DWLWD | 76% | 40.4% | Home ✅ | @2.60 | 2 – 0 FT | |
| 19/09 20:00 | LLDLW | LLDWW | 85% | 59.5% | Home ✅ | @1.68 | 4 – 0 FT | |
| 19/09 20:00 | LWLLW | WLWWW | 76% | 41.2% | Away ❌ | @2.14 | 4 – 0 FT | |
| 20/09 17:00 | LWDLL | LLLWD | 75% | 37.3% | Home ✅ | @2.71 | 1 – 0 FT | |
| 20/09 17:00 | DDLWW | LLLWL | 92% | 77.1% | Home ✅ | @1.18 | 8 – 0 FT | |
| 20/09 20:00 | WWDWL | LWWWW | 76% | 39.6% | Home ✅ | @4.04 | 3 – 2 FT | |
| 20/09 20:00 | DDLLL | DWLWL | 75% | 39.2% | Home ❌ | @2.65 | 2 – 2 FT |