Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 10:30 UTC+3 • Round 8 • 🌧 13.5°C, 19 km/h, 1mm rain
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 77% | 38.6% | 2.65 | 1xBet | 37% | +1.6 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 79% | 81.9% | 1.50 | Betano | 64.1% | +17.8 pp |
| BTTS | No | 84% | 54.6% | 2.00 | William Hill | 47.1% | +7.5 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 84% | 55.7% | 1.86 | 1xBet | 52.2% | +3.5 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 78% | 15.8% | 8.50 | William Hill | 5.9% | +9.9 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.5% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Kasımpaşa 1.32 – 0.58 Samsunspor · expected total 1.90
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The underlying numbers back that up. Kasımpaşa carry an expected goals figure of 1.3193 against Samsunspor's 0.5784, and recent xG reads 0.98 for the home side versus 0.84 for the visitors. The head-to-head is mixed but Kasımpaşa won the most recent meeting 3-0. Both squads are depleted, with five home absences and a hefty eleven for Samsunspor, which only deepens the away side's problems.
Where does the value sit? The double chance 1X at 81.9% is the safest anchor, and Under 2.5 goals at 55.7% (odds 1.86) fits a low-scoring profile, as does BTTS No at 54.6% (odds 2). The correct-score model points to 1-0 at 15.8%, with 1-0 and 2-0 the leading scorelines. Corners Over 9.5 sits at 52.5% with an expected 9.7.
The honest caveat: a 38.6% home win is not dominance, and Kasımpaşa's five injuries plus a 2.65 price mean the straight win carries real risk. Treat 1X and the unders as the steadier plays.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Kasımpaşa at home · Samsunspor away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa (home)
Samsunspor (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Kasımpaşa 3 wins · 1 draw · Samsunspor 3 wins · avg 2.6 goals · BTTS in 2 of 7
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Aug 2026 | Kasımpaşa | 3–0 | Samsunspor | Friendlies Clubs |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Kasımpaşa | 0–1 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Samsunspor | 0–0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Samsunspor | 0–2 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Kasımpaşa | 1–4 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Kasımpaşa | 1–0 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 09 Dec 2023 | Samsunspor | 4–2 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Kasımpaşa
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Galatasaray | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 03/10 | Fatih Karagümrük | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 18/09 | Konyaspor | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 13/09 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Amed | Home | 2–2 | D |
Samsunspor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Trabzonspor | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 20/09 | Erzurumspor FK | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 12/09 | Çorum FK | Home | 1–5 | L |
| 06/09 | Kocaelispor | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 30/08 | Fenerbahçe | Home | 0–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Kasımpaşa #9 · 10 pts — Samsunspor #16 · 4 pts
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Kasımpaşa
- ❌ K. Corekci — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ T. Diarra — Inactive
- ❌ H. Hajradinovic — Inactive
- ❌ M. Ouanes — Inactive
- ❌ A. Baldursson — Injury
Samsunspor
- ❌ J. Assoumou — Inactive
- ❌ Y. E. Cift — Inactive
- ❌ T. Coulibaly — Inactive
- ❌ I. Drapinski — Inactive
- ❌ E. Tavsan — Inactive
- ❌ E. Watt — Suspended
- ❌ A. Makoumbou — Inactive
- ❌ Marius — Inactive
- ❌ A. Sousa — Inactive
- ❌ F. Kaya — Injury
- ❌ O. Ohlenschlaeger — Knee Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws