Amed vs Eyüpspor

Amed host Eyüpspor at Diyarbakir Stadium on Sunday with the Süper Lig table telling a stark story: second against eighteenth. Amed sit on 17 points from 8 games, while Eyüpspor have managed just 3 from the same number, and the visitors arrive on a five-match losing run. For bettors, this is one of the clearest mismatches of the round on paper.

The model is firmly behind the home side, giving Amed an 84.1 percent win probability at a confidence of 92, with the double chance 1X rated at 91.5 percent. The expected goals split explains why: Amed are projected at 2.2551 against Eyüpspor's 0.5217, and the recent xG numbers (2.32 home, 1.13 away) point the same direction. Amed's form reads WDWWD; Eyüpspor's reads LLLLL. Both squads are depleted, with six Amed names listed and five on the Eyüpspor side, including a doubtful Abdullahi, but the imbalance in quality outweighs the absences.

The correct-score model leans toward 2-0 at 15.96 percent, followed by 1-0 at 13.42 and 3-0 at 12, which fits a controlled home win rather than a rout. Both teams to score is tipped No at 56.2 percent, and Under 2.5 goals carries 45.1 percent — a modest edge rather than a strong one. Corners are expected around 9, with Under 9.5 at 53 percent. No odds were supplied in this snapshot, so value can only be judged once you compare the model's probabilities against the bookmaker's prices; the home win at 84.1 percent is where the clearest case sits.

The honest caveat: Amed's six absentees are a real risk to the clean-sheet and correct-score angles, and a 45.1 percent Under 2.5 is close to a coin flip — treat it as a lean, not a lock.