Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 10:30 UTC+3 • Round 8 • 🌤 16.5°C, 18 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 87% | 63.8% | 1.67 | 1xBet | 60.9% | +2.9 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 79% | 83% | 1.17 | 1xBet | 84.5% | -1.5 pp |
| BTTS | No | 85% | 57.1% | 1.80 | William Hill | 52.6% | +4.5 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 52.5% | 1.85 | 1xBet | 52.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 76% | 14.9% | 6.00 | William Hill | 8.2% | +6.7 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.6 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 63% | 54.1% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Erzurumspor FK 1.45 – 0.59 Eyüpspor · expected total 2.04
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily home. Erzurumspor's expected goals of 1.4501 dwarf Eyüpspor's 0.5935, and recent xG form (0.76 home, 0.98 away) underlines how blunt the visitors look. Injuries compound matters: Eyüpspor are without D. Costa, A. Sabiri and I. Taskin, with A. Abdullahi doubtful, while Erzurumspor miss only E. Yigit.
The headline tip is a home win at 59.9% with 85 confidence, and the 1X double chance at 83% is the safer route. Under 2.5 goals carries 52.9%, BTTS No 56.7%, and a 1-0 correct score is the single most likely outcome at 17.69%. Corners look low too, with 8.6 expected and Under 9.5 at 54.1%. With no bookmaker odds quoted, value is hard to pin precisely, so compare prices yourself before staking.
The honest caveat: Eyüpspor have won the last two head-to-heads, including a 0-4 and a 3-0, so this fixture has a habit of ignoring the form book.
Updated 01 Oct 2026, 10:54 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Erzurumspor FK at home · Eyüpspor away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Erzurumspor FK (home)
Eyüpspor (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Erzurumspor FK 1 win · 2 draws · Eyüpspor 3 wins · avg 2.2 goals · BTTS in 2 of 6
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2024 | Erzurumspor FK | 0–4 | Eyüpspor | 1. Lig |
| 25 Dec 2023 | Eyüpspor | 3–0 | Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 03 Apr 2023 | Eyüpspor | 1–1 | Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 30 Oct 2022 | Erzurumspor FK | 0–1 | Eyüpspor | 1. Lig |
| 17 Feb 2022 | Erzurumspor FK | 1–1 | Eyüpspor | 1. Lig |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Eyüpspor | 0–1 | Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Erzurumspor FK
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Alanyaspor | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 20/09 | Samsunspor | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 11/09 | Beşiktaş | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 05/09 | Konyaspor | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 28/08 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Away | 1–1 | D |
Eyüpspor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Fenerbahçe | Away | 0–8 | L |
| 12/09 | Rizespor | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Çorum FK | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 30/08 | Alanyaspor | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 23/08 | Gaziantep FK | Home | 0–1 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Erzurumspor FK #14 · 8 pts — Eyüpspor #18 · 3 pts
Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Erzurumspor FK
- ❌ E. Yigit — Suspended
Eyüpspor
- ❌ D. Costa — Red Card
- ❌ A. Sabiri — Muscle Injury
- ❌ I. Taskin — Injury
- ❓ A. Abdullahi (doubtful) — Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws