Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 10:30 UTC+3 • Round 9 • 🌦 14.6°C, 12 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 78% | 40.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | 73% | 74.9% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 83% | 53.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 85% | 57% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 75% | 14.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.6% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Eyüpspor 0.70 – 1.08 Kasımpaşa · expected total 1.78
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans clearly toward the visitors. Form reads LLLWL for Eyüpspor against LWDWD for Kasımpaşa, and the expected-goals split tells the same story: the hosts are projected at 0.696 while the away side sits at 1.082, with both recent xG figures level at 0.98. Eyüpspor's injury list is heavy — D. Costa, A. Sabiri, I. Taskin and a doubtful A. Abdullahi — while Kasımpaşa are missing K. Corekci, T. Diarra, H. Hajradinovic, M. Ouanes and A. Baldursson. Recent head-to-heads have been low-scoring and alternating, including a 1-0 Kasımpaşa win in March 2026 and a 2-0 Eyüpspor win in October 2025.
The headline tip is an away win at 40.2 percent with confidence 78, and the double chance X2 lands at 74.9 percent — the safer route if you want to avoid a single-result swing. Both teams to score is tipped No at 53.4 percent, Under 2.5 goals at 57 percent, and the correct-score model favours 0-1 at 14.3 percent, with 0-1 also topping the score grid at 17.01. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 53.6 percent on an expected 10.3. Where value may hide: if bookmakers price the away win above the model's implied 40.2 percent, that is the spot; otherwise X2 is the disciplined play. The honest caveat is that no odds are quoted here, so the edge is unconfirmed — and a five-injury away list plus a low 0.696 home projection leaves room for a scrappy, unpredictable result.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Eyüpspor
Kasımpaşa
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Eyüpspor
Kasımpaşa
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Eyüpspor
Kasımpaşa
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Eyüpspor at home · Kasımpaşa away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Eyüpspor (home)
Kasımpaşa (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Eyüpspor 1 win · 0 draws · Kasımpaşa 3 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 0 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Kasımpaşa | 1–0 | Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Eyüpspor | 2–0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 10 May 2025 | Eyüpspor | 0–3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 13 Dec 2024 | Kasımpaşa | 2–0 | Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Eyüpspor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Fenerbahçe | Away | 0–8 | L |
| 12/09 | Rizespor | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Çorum FK | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 30/08 | Alanyaspor | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 23/08 | Gaziantep FK | Home | 0–1 | L |
Kasımpaşa
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Galatasaray | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 03/10 | Fatih Karagümrük | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 18/09 | Konyaspor | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 13/09 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Amed | Home | 2–2 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Eyüpspor #18 · 3 pts — Kasımpaşa #9 · 10 pts
Eyüpspor
Kasımpaşa
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Eyüpspor
Kasımpaşa
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Eyüpspor
- ❌ D. Costa — Red Card
- ❌ A. Sabiri — Muscle Injury
- ❌ I. Taskin — Injury
- ❓ A. Abdullahi (doubtful) — Injury
Kasımpaşa
- ❌ K. Corekci — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ T. Diarra — Inactive
- ❌ H. Hajradinovic — Inactive
- ❌ M. Ouanes — Inactive
- ❌ A. Baldursson — Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws