Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir

Beşiktaş host Başakşehir at Tupras Stadium on Monday 26 October 2026, with the home side sitting 2nd on 15 points from 7 games and the visitors 11th on 8 points from 7. The stakes favour the hosts: they are chasing the top of the Süper Lig table, while Başakşehir are still searching for consistency in mid-table.

The model leans heavily on current form. Beşiktaş arrive with a WLWWW run, Başakşehir with DWLLD. Expected goals tell a similar story: Beşiktaş are projected at 2.0119 goals, Başakşehir at just 0.8228, and recent xG reads 2.18 for the hosts against 1.56 for the away side. The injury list is a genuine concern for Beşiktaş, with E. Ricardo, D. Vlahovic, R. Yilmaz and M. Rashica out and L. Trossard doubtful, while Başakşehir miss E. Visca and U. Bozok.

The headline tip is a home win at 69.6 percent with confidence 89, and the double chance 1X at 83.6 percent is the safer route. Both teams to score is tipped No at 49.2 percent, and Over 2.5 goals at 51.1 percent. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 9.6 percent, with 1-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 close behind. Corners are expected at 9.8, with Over 9.5 at 52.6 percent.

Value may hide in the correct-score and goals markets, where the model's probabilities can be compared against bookmaker prices. The honest caveat: Beşiktaş's injury list is long, and Başakşehir's recent xG of 1.56 suggests they can still create chances, so the clean-sheet angle carries real risk.