Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Next match: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 • 17:00 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Alanya Oba Stadium • ☀️ 14.2°C, 6 km/h clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 84% | 55.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 74% | 76.2% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 48.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80% | 47.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 64% | 7.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 62% | 53.2% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Alanyaspor 1.82 – 1.06 Kocaelispor · expected total 2.87
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans firmly toward the home side, giving Alanyaspor a 55.7 percent win probability at 84 percent confidence, and the double chance of 1X lands at 76.2 percent. The expected goals split explains why: Alanyaspor carry a home figure of 1.8177 against Kocaelispor's away 1.0567, even though recent form reads 1.32 and 1.16 respectively. Form is mixed — Alanyaspor's DWDWL against Kocaelispor's WLWWW — but the visitors arrive with a lengthy injury list including A. Jovanovic, B. Petkovic, T. Bingol, R. Rivas, A. Dijksteel, M. Haidara, M. Maglica, T. Zoukrou and T. Gulliksen, while Alanyaspor are missing only Maestro. The head-to-head record is volatile: a 5-0 Alanyaspor win in March 2026, a 2-0 Kocaelispor reply in October 2025, and a 1-0 home win in December 2023.
For goals markets, both teams to score sits at 48.9 percent and Under 2.5 at 47.2 percent — neither is a strong call, so the value may hide in the correct score, where 2-1 tops the list at 9.88, followed by 2-0 at 9.35 and 1-0 at 9.2. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.2 percent with an expected 9.
The honest caveat: Kocaelispor's WLWWW form shows they can win without dominating, and that 2-0 H2H result last October is a reminder this fixture can flip. Back the home win with discipline, not conviction.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Alanyaspor at home · Kocaelispor away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Alanyaspor (home)
Kocaelispor (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Alanyaspor 2 wins · 0 draws · Kocaelispor 1 win · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 0 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Alanyaspor | 5–0 | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Kocaelispor | 2–0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 05 Dec 2023 | Alanyaspor | 1–0 | Kocaelispor | Türkiye Kupası |
📈 Recent Form
Alanyaspor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Erzurumspor FK | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 19/09 | Çorum FK | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Göztepe | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 07/09 | Rizespor | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 30/08 | Eyüpspor | Away | 1–2 | L |
Kocaelispor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Gaziantep FK | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 13/09 | Galatasaray | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 06/09 | Samsunspor | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 29/08 | Konyaspor | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 24/08 | Amed | Home | 2–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Alanyaspor #6 · 12 pts — Kocaelispor #7 · 12 pts
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Alanyaspor
- ❌ Maestro — Thigh Injury
Kocaelispor
- ❌ A. Jovanovic — Knee Injury
- ❌ B. Petkovic — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ T. Bingol — Inactive
- ❌ R. Rivas — Inactive
- ❌ A. Dijksteel — Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Haidara — Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Maglica — Injury
- ❌ T. Zoukrou — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Gulliksen — Hamstring Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws