Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 13:00 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Gaziantep Stadyumu • ☀️ 17.3°C, 6 km/h clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 75% | 34% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | 68% | 68.1% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 48.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 49% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 63% | 7.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 65% | 27.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.6 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 66% | 56.7% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.35 – 1.21 Erzurumspor FK · expected total 2.56
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans toward Gaziantep, giving the home win 34 percent at a confidence of 75, with the draw at 27.6 percent. The double chance covering home and draw sits at 68.1 percent, which is where the safer angle lives. Recent form is patchy — Gaziantep's LDWLW against Erzurumspor's DWLWD — and the underlying numbers are modest: recent expected goals read 1.04 for the hosts and just 0.76 for the visitors, with match lambdas of 1.3472 and 1.2085. That points to a tight, low-quality attacking game, and the model agrees, tipping Under 2.5 at 49 percent and BTTS Yes at only 48.8 percent. Corners are expected to stay low too, with Under 9.5 at 56.7 percent on an expected 7.6.
The correct-score board favours 1-0 at 9.2 percent, ahead of 2-1 at 8.52 and 2-0 at 7.05. The value question is simple: if bookmakers price the home win above the implied 34 percent, there is an edge; if they shorten it, the 68.1 percent double chance is the more honest play. The caveat is Gaziantep's injury list — six absentees including Ndiaye, Bacuna and Sangare — against just one for Erzurumspor, so the home edge may be thinner than the model's headline number suggests.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Gaziantep FK
Erzurumspor FK
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Gaziantep FK
Erzurumspor FK
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Gaziantep FK
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Erzurumspor FK
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Gaziantep FK at home · Erzurumspor FK away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK (home)
Erzurumspor FK (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Erzurumspor FK 2 wins · 2 draws · Gaziantep FK 0 wins · avg 3.5 goals · BTTS in 4 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2021 | Gaziantep FK | 2–3 | Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| 02 Jan 2021 | Erzurumspor FK | 1–1 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 07 Apr 2018 | Erzurumspor FK | 2–1 | Gaziantep FK | 1. Lig |
| 26 Nov 2017 | Gaziantep FK | 2–2 | Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Gaziantep FK
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Kocaelispor | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 14/09 | Fenerbahçe | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 07/09 | Göztepe | Away | 4–2 | W |
| 29/08 | Rizespor | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 23/08 | Eyüpspor | Away | 1–0 | W |
Erzurumspor FK
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Alanyaspor | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 20/09 | Samsunspor | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 11/09 | Beşiktaş | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 05/09 | Konyaspor | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 28/08 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Away | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Gaziantep FK #12 · 8 pts — Erzurumspor FK #14 · 8 pts
Gaziantep FK
Erzurumspor FK
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Gaziantep FK
Erzurumspor FK
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Gaziantep FK
- ❌ B. Ndiaye — Injury
- ❌ J. Bacuna — Red Card
- ❌ N. Sangare — Inactive
- ❌ F. Bavuk — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ S. Hansen — Injury
- ❌ A. O. Kalin — Muscle Injury
Erzurumspor FK
- ❌ E. Yigit — Suspended
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws