Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 16:00 UTC+3 • Round 8 • Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • 🌧 14.8°C, 15 km/h, 0.5mm rain
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 86% | 61.8% | 1.72 | 1xBet | 58.7% | +3.1 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 77% | 79.7% | 1.22 | 1xBet | 80.3% | -0.6 pp |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 48.3% | 2.25 | William Hill | 41.9% | +6.4 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80% | 47.1% | 2.38 | 1xBet | 40.8% | +6.3 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 66% | 9.1% | 9.50 | Bet365 | 5.3% | +3.8 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 65% | 55.7% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Başakşehir 1.78 – 0.88 Gaziantep FK · expected total 2.66
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily on home advantage. Başakşehir's recent expected goals sit at 1.56 against Gaziantep's 1.04, and the season-long picture is wider still: 1.7758 for the hosts versus 0.8826 for the away side. Form is patchy — WLLDL for Başakşehir, LDWLW for Gaziantep — but the visitors arrive badly depleted, missing B. Ndiaye, J. Bacuna, N. Sangare, F. Bavuk, S. Hansen and A. O. Kalin. Başakşehir are without E. Visca and U. Bozok. Recent head-to-heads have swung both ways, including a 5-1 home win and a 3-0 away defeat, so this fixture is rarely dull.
The headline tip is a home win at 61.8% probability, priced at 1.72, with double chance 1X at 79.7%. Where value may hide is in the goals markets: the model favours no both-teams-to-score at 48.3% (odds 2.25) and under 2.5 goals at 47.1% (odds 2.38), while the top correct scores cluster around 1-0 and 2-0. Corners lean under 9.5 at 55.7%, with an expected 8.
The honest caveat: those probabilities are modest, and Başakşehir's own form is far from convincing — a low-scoring home win is the likely script, but this is not a fixture to overstake.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Başakşehir
Gaziantep FK
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Başakşehir
Gaziantep FK
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Başakşehir at home · Gaziantep FK away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Başakşehir (home)
Gaziantep FK (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Başakşehir 7 wins · 1 draw · Gaziantep FK 2 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Gaziantep FK | 1–2 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 22 Dec 2025 | Başakşehir | 5–1 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Başakşehir | 2–1 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Gaziantep FK | 3–0 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Gaziantep FK | 0–2 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 07 Oct 2023 | Başakşehir | 2–0 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 30 May 2023 | Başakşehir | 3–0 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 05 Jan 2023 | Gaziantep FK | 1–1 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Başakşehir | 2–0 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 22 Sep 2021 | Gaziantep FK | 1–0 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Başakşehir
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 13/09 | Amed | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 04/09 | Galatasaray | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 30/08 | Kasımpaşa | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 23/08 | Trabzonspor | Away | 1–2 | L |
Gaziantep FK
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Kocaelispor | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 14/09 | Fenerbahçe | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 07/09 | Göztepe | Away | 4–2 | W |
| 29/08 | Rizespor | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 23/08 | Eyüpspor | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Başakşehir #11 · 8 pts — Gaziantep FK #12 · 8 pts
Başakşehir
Gaziantep FK
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Başakşehir
Gaziantep FK
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Başakşehir
- ❌ E. Visca — Inactive
- ❌ U. Bozok — Red Card
Gaziantep FK
- ❌ B. Ndiaye — Injury
- ❌ J. Bacuna — Red Card
- ❌ N. Sangare — Inactive
- ❌ F. Bavuk — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ S. Hansen — Injury
- ❌ A. O. Kalin — Muscle Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws