Rizespor vs Trabzonspor
Next match: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 • 16:00 UTC+3 • Round 9 • 🌦 5.6°C, 17 km/h, 1.7mm showers
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 74% | 30.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | 69% | 69% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 49.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 49.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 61% | 6.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 62% | 27.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 62% | 53.2% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Rizespor 1.36 – 1.35 Trabzonspor · expected total 2.72
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model sees this as close to even in attack: Rizespor carry a home scoring expectation of 1.3619, Trabzonspor an away figure of 1.3534. Recent form backs up the visitors' edge in output, with Trabzonspor generating 1.83 expected goals recently against Rizespor's 1.37, though their last five reads WLWLW against the home side's LWDWL. Trabzonspor's squad is the bigger concern, with seven names listed as injuries including Malinovskyi and Yokuslu, while Rizespor are without four. Head-to-head history leans away, with Trabzonspor winning three of the last five meetings, most recently 1-0 in March 2026.
For bettors, the model's headline call is a home win at 30.5 percent with confidence of 74, and the double chance covering 1 or 2 lands at 69 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 49.5 percent, and Over 2.5 goals at 49.2 percent. The correct score leans 2-1 at 6.5 percent, with 1-0 and 2-0 close behind. Corners are tipped Under 9.5 at 53.2 percent against an expected 9. The draw is priced at 27.3 percent with confidence 62, and that is where value may hide if the bookmaker shortens the visitors on reputation alone.
The honest caveat: none of these probabilities are dominant, and with both attacks separated by less than a hundredth of a goal, this is a fixture where the draw and the unders deserve respect rather than dismissal.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Rizespor
Trabzonspor
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Rizespor
Trabzonspor
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Rizespor
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Trabzonspor
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Rizespor at home · Trabzonspor away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Rizespor (home)
Trabzonspor (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Rizespor 4 wins · 1 draw · Trabzonspor 5 wins · avg 3.1 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Trabzonspor | 1–0 | Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Rizespor | 1–2 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Trabzonspor | 2–0 | Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Trabzonspor | 5–2 | Rizespor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 09 Nov 2024 | Rizespor | 3–1 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 25 Jan 2024 | Rizespor | 1–0 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Trabzonspor | 2–3 | Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 18 Mar 2022 | Rizespor | 3–2 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 29 Oct 2021 | Trabzonspor | 2–1 | Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 10 Apr 2021 | Rizespor | 0–0 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Rizespor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Fenerbahçe | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 03/10 | Boluspor | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Göztepe | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Eyüpspor | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 07/09 | Alanyaspor | Home | 0–1 | L |
Trabzonspor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Samsunspor | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 01/10 | Drogheda United | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 19/09 | Galatasaray | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Konyaspor | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 06/09 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Home | 5–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Rizespor #10 · 10 pts — Trabzonspor #5 · 13 pts
Rizespor
Trabzonspor
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Rizespor
Trabzonspor
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Rizespor
- ❌ K. Alikulov — Knee Injury
- ❌ F. Orak — Inactive
- ❌ M. Diakite — Inactive
- ❌ V. Mihaila — Inactive
Trabzonspor
- ❌ A. Batagov — Knee Injury
- ❌ T. Jabol-Folcarelli — Knee Injury
- ❌ E. Muci — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ O. Yokuslu — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ B. Bouchouari — Inactive
- ❌ R. Malinovskyi — Inactive
- ❌ N. Saviolo — Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws