Predictions → Turkey Süper Lig

Samsunspor vs Amed

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 16:00 UTC+3 • Round 9 • Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • ☁️ 18.2°C, 1 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 80% 46.5% — — — —
Double Chance X2 74% 75.7% — — — —
BTTS No 81% 49.6% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49% — — — —
Correct Score 0-1 71% 12.1% — — — —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 53.8% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Samsunspor 0.79 – 1.31 Amed · expected total 2.11

🧠 Match Preview

Samsunspor host Amed at the Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu on Saturday with the two clubs at opposite ends of the Süper Lig table. The home side sit 17th on 4 points from 7 games, while the visitors are 3rd on 14 points from 7, and the form lines could hardly be more contrasting: Samsunspor have lost all five of their last five (LLLLL), Amed are unbeaten across their last five (DWWDW).

The model leans heavily on that gap. It makes Amed the away favourite at 46.5% with 80 confidence, and the double chance X2 lands at 75.7%. Expected goals tell the same story: Samsunspor are projected at 0.7936 for the match against recent xG of 0.84, while Amed are projected at 1.3132 against a red-hot recent xG of 2.16. Samsunspor's injury list is brutal, with J. Assoumou, Y. E. Cift, T. Coulibaly, I. Drapinski, E. Tavsan, E. Watt, A. Makoumbou, Marius, A. Sousa, F. Kaya, O. Ohlenschlaeger and a doubtful C. Yuksel all listed; Amed are missing M. Yildirim, Y. Sor, A. Cisse, G. Gul and D. Demir.

With no bookmaker odds supplied, the value case rests on the model numbers. BTTS "No" sits at 49.6% and Under 2.5 at 49%, so the cleanest angle is the away win or X2, with 0-1 the top correct score at 12.1% (14.71 in the score grid, ahead of 0-2 at 10.49 and 1-2 at 8.33). Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53.8% on an expected 8.7.

The honest caveat: 46.5% is not a majority, and a low-scoring away win can flip on one set piece. H2H offers little comfort either, with Samsunspor winning three of the last four meetings.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Samsunspor

Form (last 5)
LTrabzonspor (H) 0–3 · 10/10/2026LErzurumspor FK (A) 0–1 · 20/09/2026LÇorum FK (H) 1–5 · 12/09/2026LKocaelispor (A) 0–1 · 06/09/2026LFenerbahçe (H) 0–2 · 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)2.10
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.84
xG against (recent avg)1.39
Elo strength rating1443
Players out11

Amed

Form (last 5)
DGençlerbirliği S.K. (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026WBeşiktaş (H) 3–2 · 20/09/2026WBaşakşehir (H) 5–0 · 13/09/2026DKasımpaşa (A) 2–2 · 06/09/2026WTrabzonspor (H) 2–1 · 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)2.16
xG against (recent avg)1.20
Elo strength rating1452
Players out5
SamsunsporAmed
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
2.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.10
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.84
2.16
xG against (recent avg)
1.39
1.20
Elo strength rating
1443
1452
Players out
11
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Samsunspor

Lost 5 in a row Winless 5
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Amed

Unbeaten 5
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig

Samsunspor

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Amed

2nd best attack (2.40 goals/game) 3rd best BTTS rate (67%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Samsunspor at home · Amed away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Samsunspor (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L
D 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)3.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Amed (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–1L
D 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Samsunspor (home)Amed (away)
D 1
L 3
D 2
L 1
Played
4
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
3.30
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
2
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
12.1%
0–2
8.6%
1–2
6.9%
0–3
3.8%
1–3
3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Amed 1 win · 1 draw · Samsunspor 2 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 1 of 4

1
1
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
19 Feb 2020 Samsunspor 3–0 Amed 2. Lig
09 Oct 2019 Amed 0–0 Samsunspor 2. Lig
20 Jan 2019 Amed 3–2 Samsunspor 2. Lig
02 Sep 2018 Samsunspor 1–0 Amed 2. Lig

📈 Recent Form

Samsunspor

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Trabzonspor Home 0–3 L
20/09 Erzurumspor FK Away 0–1 L
12/09 Çorum FK Home 1–5 L
06/09 Kocaelispor Away 0–1 L
30/08 Fenerbahçe Home 0–2 L

Amed

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Gençlerbirliği S.K. Away 2–2 D
20/09 Beşiktaş Home 3–2 W
13/09 Başakşehir Home 5–0 W
06/09 Kasımpaşa Away 2–2 D
31/08 Trabzonspor Home 2–1 W

📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig

Samsunspor #17 · 4 pts —  Amed #3 · 14 pts

Samsunspor

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–5L
W 1
D 1
L 5
Played7
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Yellow cards6
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.84
xG against (avg)1.39
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Amed

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–1L
W 4
D 2
L 1
Played7
Goals scored (avg)2.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards24
Red cards1
xG for (avg)2.16
xG against (avg)1.20
Corners for (avg)3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
SamsunsporAmed
W 1
D 1
L 5
W 4
D 2
L 1
Played
7
7
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
2.40
Goals conceded (avg)
2.10
1.30
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
4
1
Yellow cards
6
24
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.84
2.16
xG against (avg)
1.39
1.20
Corners for (avg)
4.40
3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Samsunspor

5
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Amed

1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Samsunspor

  • ❌ J. Assoumou — Inactive
  • ❌ Y. E. Cift — Inactive
  • ❌ T. Coulibaly — Inactive
  • ❌ I. Drapinski — Inactive
  • ❌ E. Tavsan — Inactive
  • ❌ E. Watt — Suspended
  • ❌ A. Makoumbou — Inactive
  • ❌ Marius — Inactive
  • ❌ A. Sousa — Inactive
  • ❌ F. Kaya — Injury
  • ❌ O. Ohlenschlaeger — Knee Injury
  • ❓ C. Yuksel (doubtful) — Injury

Amed

  • ❌ M. Yildirim — Inactive
  • ❌ Y. Sor — Injury
  • ❌ A. Cisse — Red Card
  • ❌ G. Gul — Calf Injury
  • ❌ D. Demir — Knee Injury

More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws