Göztepe vs Çorum FK
Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 16:00 UTC+3 • Round 9 • 🌤 10°C, 13 km/h mostly clear
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | 75% | 32.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | 68% | 68.1% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 51.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 49.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 62% | 7.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 65% | 27.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.3 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 61% | 52.4% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Göztepe 1.23 – 1.33 Çorum FK · expected total 2.56
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans away. The match result tip is an Away win at 32.7 percent with confidence 75, and the double chance covering draw or away lands at 68.1 percent. Recent form backs the visitors' edge: Çorum FK have won three of their last five (WLWWL), while Göztepe have gone WDDLL. The expected goals are close but favour the away side, 1.3298 to 1.2313, though Göztepe's recent xG of 2.2 against Çorum's 1.46 suggests the hosts are creating more than their results show. Both teams to score is priced at 51.2 percent, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 49.5 percent — essentially a coin flip. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 7.1 percent, with 1-2 (8.41) and 0-2 (6.83) close behind in the top-scores list.
Where might value hide? The draw is rated 27.6 percent with confidence 65, and the 1-1 in the last head-to-head shows Çorum are no pushovers in this matchup. Corners point Under 9.5 at 52.4 percent, with an expected 9.3. The honest caveat: Göztepe's injury list is brutal — nine names including N. Sonko Sundberg and Allan Godoi — so their recent xG may not translate, and a 32.7 percent away probability is far from a banker.
Updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Göztepe at home · Çorum FK away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Göztepe (home)
Çorum FK (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Çorum FK 1 win · 1 draw · Göztepe 0 wins · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 2 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2024 | Çorum FK | 1–1 | Göztepe | 1. Lig |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Göztepe | 1–2 | Çorum FK | 1. Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Göztepe
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Eyüpspor | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Rizespor | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Alanyaspor | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 07/09 | Gaziantep FK | Home | 2–4 | L |
| 29/08 | Galatasaray | Away | 2–3 | L |
Çorum FK
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Gaziantep FK | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Alanyaspor | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Samsunspor | Away | 5–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Eyüpspor | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 31/08 | Beşiktaş | Away | 2–6 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Göztepe #15 · 6 pts — Çorum FK #8 · 10 pts
Göztepe
Çorum FK
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Göztepe
- ❌ N. Sonko Sundberg — Inactive
- ❌ Allan Godoi — Injury
- ❌ A. Antunes — Inactive
- ❌ F. Bayir — Inactive
- ❌ I. Sabra — Ankle Injury
- ❌ G. Bayrakdar — Inactive
- ❌ O. Bayrak — Red Card
- ❌ L. Gugeshashvili — Injury
- ❌ N. Miroshi — Inactive
Çorum FK
- ❌ S. Osmanoglu — Injury
- ❌ A. Kyziridis — Red Card
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws