Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
Next match: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 • 17:00 UTC+3 • Round 8 • Papara Park • 🌦 17.6°C, 4 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 81% | 48.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | 71% | 71.9% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | Yes | 82% | 50.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 52% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 63% | 7.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53.2% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Trabzonspor 1.81 – 1.27 Beşiktaş · expected total 3.08
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans toward the home side, giving Trabzonspor a 48.5% chance of victory with confidence at 81. Their recent form reads WLWLW, inconsistent but with wins in the right places, and their recent expected goals of 1.83 sit above their season baseline of 1.8115. Beşiktaş arrive in stronger form — LWWWW — and their recent expected goals of 2.18 actually outstrip their season figure of 1.2705, suggesting their attack is heating up. The double chance covering a home win or draw lands at 71.9%, which is the safer route given the visitors' momentum.
For goals, Over 2.5 carries a 52% probability and BTTS Yes sits at 50.3% — both essentially coin flips, so the prices matter more than the picks. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.59%, followed by 2-0 at 7.55% and 1-0 at 7.28%. Corners offer a cleaner angle: Over 9.5 is priced at 53.2% with an expected total of 10.
The honest caveat is injuries. Trabzonspor list seven absentees including Malinovskyi and Yokuslu, while Beşiktaş are missing Yilmaz and Rashica with Trossard doubtful. That's enough disruption to make the 48.5% home probability feel less comfortable than it looks, so treat the outright win with caution and lean on the double chance.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Trabzonspor
Beşiktaş
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Trabzonspor
Beşiktaş
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Süper Lig
Trabzonspor
Beşiktaş
Rank among 18 Süper Lig teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Trabzonspor at home · Beşiktaş away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (home)
Beşiktaş (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Beşiktaş 3 wins · 5 draws · Trabzonspor 2 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May 2026 | Beşiktaş | 1–2 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Trabzonspor | 3–3 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Beşiktaş | 2–1 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Trabzonspor | 1–1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 23 May 2024 | Beşiktaş | 3–2 | Trabzonspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 04 Feb 2024 | Beşiktaş | 2–0 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Trabzonspor | 3–0 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 16 Apr 2023 | Trabzonspor | 0–0 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Beşiktaş | 2–2 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 03 Apr 2022 | Trabzonspor | 1–1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
📈 Recent Form
Trabzonspor
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Samsunspor | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 01/10 | Drogheda United | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 19/09 | Galatasaray | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Konyaspor | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 06/09 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Home | 5–0 | W |
Beşiktaş
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Amed | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 17/09 | Marseille | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 11/09 | Erzurumspor FK | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Fenerbahçe | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 31/08 | Çorum FK | Home | 6–2 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Süper Lig
Trabzonspor #5 · 13 pts — Beşiktaş #2 · 15 pts
Trabzonspor
Beşiktaş
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Trabzonspor
Beşiktaş
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Trabzonspor
- ❌ A. Batagov — Knee Injury
- ❌ T. Jabol-Folcarelli — Knee Injury
- ❌ E. Muci — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ O. Yokuslu — Lacking Match Fitness
- ❌ B. Bouchouari — Inactive
- ❌ R. Malinovskyi — Inactive
- ❌ N. Saviolo — Injury
Beşiktaş
- ❌ E. Ricardo — Off the roster
- ❌ D. Vlahovic — Suspended
- ❌ R. Yilmaz — Inactive
- ❌ M. Rashica — Injury
- ❓ L. Trossard (doubtful) — Injury
More: Süper Lig predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws