Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha
Next match: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 • 16:45 UTC+3 • League Stage - 3 • Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • ⛅ 14.2°C, 11 km/h partly cloudy
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 86% | 61.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 76% | 77.7% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | Yes | 83% | 52.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 54.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 64% | 7.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.4 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 63% | 53.9% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.13 – 1.17 Slavia Praha · expected total 3.30
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans firmly toward the home side. Fenerbahçe arrive on WWWDD, Slavia on WWWLW, but the underlying numbers separate them: the home side's recent expected goals read 2.63 against 2.19 for the visitors, and the match-level goal expectation is 2.1319 for Fenerbahçe versus 1.1656 for Slavia. That gap drives a 61.8 percent home win probability at 86 percent confidence, with the double chance 1X at 77.7 percent. Both teams to score lands at 52.9 percent, over 2.5 goals at 54.2 percent, and corners over 9.5 at 53.9 percent off an expected 10.4.
The headline tip is a home win, and the correct-score cluster is telling: 2-1 at 9.86, 2-0 at 8.46, 1-0 at 7.01, 3-1 at 7.01 and 3-0 at 6.01, with 2-1 the single most likely at 7.8 percent. Value likely hides in the goals markets rather than the outright, since the win price is where the market will compress hardest. The honest caveat is team news: both squads list extensive absences, Fenerbahçe's including M. Asensio, M. Guendouzi and K. Akturkoglu, while Slavia carry four doubtful names in D. Jurasek, O. Kubiak, E. Pitak and I. Schranz. Late fitness calls could shift the picture materially.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Fenerbahçe
Slavia Praha
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Fenerbahçe
Slavia Praha
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Fenerbahçe at home · Slavia Praha away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe (home)
Slavia Praha (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Fenerbahçe 1 win · 0 draws · Slavia Praha 2 wins · avg 4.3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov 2024 | Slavia Praha | 1–2 | Fenerbahçe | UEFA Europa League |
| 24 Feb 2022 | Slavia Praha | 3–2 | Fenerbahçe | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| 17 Feb 2022 | Fenerbahçe | 2–3 | Slavia Praha | UEFA Europa Conference League |
📈 Recent Form
Fenerbahçe
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Rizespor | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Turan | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Eyüpspor | Home | 8–0 | W |
| 14/09 | Gaziantep FK | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 10/09 | AS Roma | Home | 1–1 | D |
Slavia Praha
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Plzen | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 16/09 | Varnsdorf | Away | 5–1 | W |
| 13/09 | Teplice | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 10/09 | Lens | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 05/09 | Zbrojovka Brno | Home | 4–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Champions League
Fenerbahçe #20 · 1 pts — Slavia Praha #23 · 0 pts
Fenerbahçe
Slavia Praha
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Fenerbahçe
Slavia Praha
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Fenerbahçe
- ❌ M. Asensio — Muscle Injury
- ❌ A. Diouf — Off the roster
- ❌ A. Fall — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Guendouzi — Red Card
- ❌ J. Oosterwolde — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ M. Yandas — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Muldur — Knee Injury
- ❌ K. Akturkoglu — Concussion
- ❌ Diego Carlos — Inactive
- ❌ M. Gunok — Muscle Injury
- ❌ O. Mimovic — Inactive
- ❌ Rodrigo Becao — Inactive
- ❌ C. Soyuncu — Injury
- ❌ C. Under — Inactive
- ❌ A. Yesilyurt — Inactive
- ❌ E. Demir — Inactive
- ❌ O. Fayed — Inactive
- ❌ D. Livakovic — Transfer negotiations
Slavia Praha
- ❌ T. Holes — Health problems
- ❌ O. Kolar — Off the roster
- ❌ D. Moses — Injury
- ❌ A. N'Guessan — Injury
- ❌ I. Ogbu — Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ A. Ouanda — Injury
- ❌ L. Provod — Ankle Injury
- ❌ M. Suleiman — Health problems
- ❌ S. Chaloupek — Muscle Injury
- ❌ P. Kacor — Shoulder Injury
- ❌ M. Konecny — Red Card
- ❓ D. Jurasek (doubtful) — Thigh Injury
- ❓ O. Kubiak (doubtful) — Health problems
- ❓ E. Pitak (doubtful) — Health problems
- ❓ I. Schranz (doubtful) — Health problems
More: UEFA Champions League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws