Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Inter sit 29th in the League Stage table with 0 points from 2 games, so this home fixture against Shakhtar Donetsk carries real urgency. The visitors arrive 11th on 4 points and, on paper, in far better shape.

The model leans heavily on Inter's recent attacking output: 2.96 expected goals across their recent matches, against a Shakhtar side whose recent expected goals figure is not available. Inter's last five read WWDWL, while Shakhtar come in with a perfect WWWWW. The goal projections are modest, with Inter at 1.4001 and Shakhtar at 0.7134, which explains why the model favours a controlled home win rather than a rout. Injuries bite both squads: Inter are without F. Dimarco, D. Spence, C. Jones and J. Stones, while Shakhtar miss V. Korniyenko, Marlon, P. Obah, Pedrinho, T. Puzankov, M. Shved and D. Tvardovskyi. History is tight, with three 0-0 draws in the last five meetings, plus Inter wins of 2-0 and 5-0.

The headline tip is a Home win at 81.1 percent probability, priced at 1.24. Double chance 1X sits at 79.1 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 53 percent, offered at 2.1, and Under 2.5 goals carries 49.7 percent at odds of 3.4. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 13.1 percent, with 2-0 at 11.85 and 2-1 at 8.45. Corners are tipped Over 9.5 with an expected 10 and 53.1 percent.

The honest caveat: Shakhtar's five straight wins and Inter's 0 points make the 1.24 price thin, and the Under 2.5 and BTTS No angles are near coin-flips, so treat them as speculative rather than safe.