Lask Linz vs Liverpool

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 • 16:45 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • Raiffeisen Arena • ☁️ 13.9°C, 9 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away 1.29 → 1.32 ▲2%	90%	71.9%	1.32	1xBet	78.1%	-6.2 pp
Double Chance	12	71%	71.4%	1.15	1xBet	86.5%	-15.1 pp
BTTS	Yes	82%	51.6%	1.70	Bet365	55.8%	-4.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	51.4%	1.39	Betano	69.7%	-18.3 pp
Correct Score	1-2	61%	6.5%	9.50	Bet365	5.4%	+1.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.3%	1.70	Pinnacle	55.8%	-2.5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Lask Linz 1.59 – 1.58 Liverpool · expected total 3.17

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Lask Linz host Liverpool at the Raiffeisen Arena on Wednesday with the visitors looking to build on an opening matchday win, while the Austrians are still searching for their first points of this Champions League league stage. The stakes are simple: Liverpool sit 13th on 3 points, Lask are 28th with 0 from 1 played, and the gap in quality is reflected everywhere in the numbers.

The model leans heavily on recent form. Liverpool arrive with LWWDW, Lask with LWDLL, and the expected goals split is almost dead level at 1.5886 for the hosts and 1.5833 for the visitors, though recent xG tells a different story: 2.14 for Lask against just 1.4 for Liverpool. The away side's injury list is long — C. Bradley, F. Chiesa, H. Ekitike, W. Endo, C. Gakpo, J. Gomez and G. Leoni are out, with A. Isak and D. Szoboszlai doubtful — while Lask miss K. Cheikne, R. Harakate and A. Smakaj. History is one-sided: Liverpool won 4-0 in November 2023 and 3-1 in Linz two months earlier.

The headline tip is an away win at 71.9% probability, priced at 1.32, with the 1-2 correct score the model's favoured outcome at 6.5%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 51.4% (odds 1.39), BTTS at 51.6% (odds 1.7) and over 9.5 corners at 53.3% with 10.1 expected. The value question is whether 1.32 underrates Liverpool given that injury list — the double chance covering the draw and away win sits at 71.4%, which is worth a look if you want insurance. The honest caveat: those xG figures are close enough that a rotated, depleted Liverpool could easily be dragged into a scrap, and the 1-2 scoreline carries only 6.5% probability, so treat it as a speculative play rather than a banker.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Lask Linz

Form (last 5)

LRapid Vienna (H) 0–2 · 11/10/2026WFirst Vienna (H) 2–1 · 02/10/2026DTSV Hartberg (A) 3–3 · 20/09/2026LSturm Graz (A) 1–2 · 13/09/2026LAEK Athens FC (A) 0–1 · 08/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)1.70

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.77

xG against (recent avg)0.74

Elo strength rating1365

Players out3

Liverpool

Form (last 5)

LManchester City (H) 0–3 · 11/10/2026 WBournemouth (A) 1–0 · 20/09/2026WTottenham (H) 3–1 · 15/09/2026DFulham (H) 0–0 · 12/09/2026WAtletico Madrid (H) 2–1 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.00

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.07

xG against (recent avg)0.60

Elo strength rating1891

Players out7

Lask LinzLiverpool

LRapid Vienna (H) 0–2 · 11/10/2026WFirst Vienna (H) 2–1 · 02/10/2026DTSV Hartberg (A) 3–3 · 20/09/2026LSturm Graz (A) 1–2 · 13/09/2026LAEK Athens FC (A) 0–1 · 08/09/2026

LManchester City (H) 0–3 · 11/10/2026 WBournemouth (A) 1–0 · 20/09/2026WTottenham (H) 3–1 · 15/09/2026DFulham (H) 0–0 · 12/09/2026WAtletico Madrid (H) 2–1 · 09/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.70

2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.70

1.00

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.77

1.07

xG against (recent avg)

0.74

0.60

Elo strength rating

1365

1891

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Lask Linz

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Liverpool

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lask Linz at home · Liverpool away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Lask Linz (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L

W 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)5.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Liverpool (away)

Played0

Goals scored (avg)0.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Lask Linz (home)Liverpool (away)

W 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

5.00

0.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.00

0.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2

6.5%

0–1

4.3%

0–2

4.1%

1–3

3.4%

2–3

2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Lask Linz 0 wins · 0 draws · Liverpool 2 wins · avg 4 goals · BTTS in 1 of 2

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
30 Nov 2023	Liverpool	4–0	Lask Linz	UEFA Europa League
21 Sep 2023	Lask Linz	1–3	Liverpool	UEFA Europa League

📈 Recent Form

Lask Linz

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Rapid Vienna	Home	0–2	L
02/10	First Vienna	Home	2–1	W
20/09	TSV Hartberg	Away	3–3	D
13/09	Sturm Graz	Away	1–2	L
08/09	AEK Athens FC	Away	0–1	L

Liverpool

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Manchester City	Home	0–3	L
20/09	Bournemouth	Away	1–0	W
15/09	Tottenham	Home	3–1	W
12/09	Fulham	Home	0–0	D
09/09	Atletico Madrid	Home	2–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Champions League

Lask Linz #28 · 0 pts — Liverpool #13 · 3 pts

Lask Linz

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L

L 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards5

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.77

xG against (avg)0.74

Corners for (avg)6.20

Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Liverpool

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L

W 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Yellow cards1

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.07

xG against (avg)0.60

Corners for (avg)4.50

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Lask LinzLiverpool

L 1

W 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.70

2.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.70

1.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.77

1.07

xG against (avg)

0.74

0.60

Corners for (avg)

6.20

4.50

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/1

0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lask Linz

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Liverpool

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Lask Linz

❌ K. Cheikne — Off the roster
❌ R. Harakate — Knee Injury
❌ A. Smakaj — Off the roster

Liverpool

❌ C. Bradley — Knee Injury
❌ F. Chiesa — Back Injury
❌ H. Ekitike — Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ W. Endo — Off the roster
❌ C. Gakpo — Muscle Injury
❌ J. Gomez — Muscle Injury
❌ G. Leoni — Knee Injury
❓ A. Isak (doubtful) — Thigh Injury
❓ D. Szoboszlai (doubtful) — Hamstring Injury

More: UEFA Champions League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: Tobias Stieler