Villarreal vs Napoli
Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β’ 19:00 UTC+3 β’ League Stage - 2 β’ Estadio de la CerΓ‘mica β’ βοΈ 25Β°C, 3 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 80% | 45.8% | 2.29 | 1xBet | 44.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 74% | 76% | 1.40 | 1xBet | 70.1% | +5.9 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 83% | 52.2% | 1.57 | William Hill | 61.9% | -9.7 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 49% | 1.72 | SBO | 57.8% | -8.8 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 65% | 8.3% | 11.00 | Bet365 | 4.9% | +3.4 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 64% | 54.6% | 2.10 | Betfair | 47.5% | +7.1 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: Villarreal 1.69 β 0.99 Napoli Β· expected total 2.68
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
The model leans toward the hosts. Villarreal's recent expected goals of 2.77 dwarf Napoli's 1.53, and the goal projections split 1.6902 to 0.9899 in their favour. Form is patchy on both sides β Villarreal's LWWLL against Napoli's WDWLL β but the visitors arrive badly depleted, missing F. Anguissa, A. Buongiorno, S. McTominay, M. Olivera and five more, while Villarreal are without J. Foyth, C. Romero and T. Buchanan. History offers little comfort either way, with the last five meetings producing a 2-3, a 1-1, a 1-0, a 0-2 and a 2-0.
The headline tip is a home win at 45.8% probability, priced at 2.29, with the 1X double chance covering 76% of outcomes. Both teams to score lands at 52.2% (1.57), Over 2.5 goals at 49% (1.72), and corners look lively with an expected 10.7 and Over 9.5 at 54.6%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 8.3%, followed by 2-0 and 2-1.
The honest caveat: a 45.8% home probability is far from dominant, and Napoli's injury list could just as easily galvanise a reaction as expose them. Treat the 2.29 as fair rather than generous, and let the double chance carry the weight.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Villarreal
Napoli
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Villarreal
Napoli
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β UEFA Champions League
Villarreal
Napoli
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 36 UEFA Champions League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
Villarreal at home Β· Napoli away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Villarreal (home)
Napoli (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Napoli 2 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Villarreal 2 wins Β· avg 2.4 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dec 2022 | Napoli | 2β3 | Villarreal | Friendlies Clubs |
| 25 Feb 2016 | Napoli | 1β1 | Villarreal | UEFA Europa League |
| 18 Feb 2016 | Villarreal | 1β0 | Napoli | UEFA Europa League |
| 07 Dec 2011 | Villarreal | 0β2 | Napoli | UEFA Champions League |
| 27 Sep 2011 | Napoli | 2β0 | Villarreal | UEFA Champions League |
π Recent Form
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Real Madrid | Away | 0β1 | L |
| 20/09 | Levante | Home | 3β1 | W |
| 17/09 | Malaga | Away | 3β1 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Betis | Home | 1β2 | L |
| 08/09 | Borussia Dortmund | Away | 2β3 | L |
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Frosinone | Home | 3β0 | W |
| 20/09 | Fiorentina | Away | 1β1 | D |
| 13/09 | Bologna | Home | 1β0 | W |
| 09/09 | Arsenal | Home | 0β1 | L |
| 05/09 | Inter | Away | 2β3 | L |
π Season Comparison β UEFA Champions League
Villarreal #21 Β· 0 pts β Napoli #27 Β· 0 pts
Villarreal
Napoli
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Villarreal
Napoli
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Villarreal
- β J. Foyth β Achilles Tendon Injury
- β C. Romero β Injury
- β T. Buchanan β Muscle Injury
Napoli
- β F. Anguissa β Muscle Injury
- β A. Buongiorno β Knee Injury
- β Giovane β Groin Injury
- β L. Marianucci β Knee Injury
- β S. McTominay β Heart Problems
- β Alisson Santos β Muscle Injury
- β C. Favasuli β Thigh Injury
- β M. Olivera β Groin Injury
- β A. Vergara β Calf Injury
More: UEFA Champions League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws
Referee: Daniel Siebert