1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • SNP Arena • ☁️ 12°C, 4 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Over/Under 2.5 — Under 2.5

Model 47.4% · Market best price ≈ 36.4% · Edge +12.1 pp

Best odds 2.75 Bet365 2.75Betfair 2.75Pinnacle 2.73

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 4.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	79%	43.5%	2.00	Dafabet	50.8%	-7.3 pp
Double Chance	12	67%	65.9%	1.26	Marathonbet	77.5%	-11.6 pp
BTTS	Yes	81%	49.3%	1.44	William Hill	66.7%	-17.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	80%	47.4%	2.75	Bet365	35.3%	+12.1 pp
Correct Score	1-0	64%	8.2%	12.00	Bet365	4.3%	+3.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12 exp.)	Over 9.5	66%	56.9%	1.63	1xBet	58%	-1.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.10 – 1.14 Beşiktaş · expected total 2.24

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Hoffenheim host Beşiktaş at the SNP Arena on Thursday night in Europa League League Stage action, and the stakes are already lopsided. The visitors sit 4th on 3 points from their single outing, while the Germans are 29th with 0 points from 1 played. For Hoffenheim, this is close to must-win territory.

The model, though, reads the form book with caution. Hoffenheim arrive on a miserable LLLWL run, while Beşiktaş are flying at LWWWW. Recent expected goals tell a similar story: 2.01 for the hosts and 2.18 for the away side, yet the match-level goal expectations sit far lower at 1.0968 and 1.1445 respectively — a sign the model expects a tight, low-scoring affair. Beşiktaş also carry the heavier injury list with C. Keles, M. Rashica and L. Trossard out, against just L. Engelns for Hoffenheim.

The headline tip is a Home win at 43.5% probability with confidence of 79, priced at 2 — a rare case where the model's number sits comfortably above the implied odds. Double chance 12 lands at 65.9%, and BTTS Yes at 49.3% is priced at 1.44, which looks short. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 47.4% and offers 2.75, while the correct score leans to 1-0 at 8.2%, with 1-0 the top scoreline at 10.33. Corners point Over 9.5 at 56.9%, with 12 expected.

The honest caveat: Hoffenheim's LLLWL form and the low combined goal expectation mean a 1-0 could just as easily flip to a 0-1, so treat the home win as a value play, not a banker.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

1899 Hoffenheim

Form (last 5)

LHamburger SV (H) 2–3 · 10/10/2026 LSC Paderborn 07 (A) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 LOFI (A) 0–2 · 17/09/2026WVfB Stuttgart (H) 2–1 · 12/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (H) 2–3 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)0.00

Goals conceded (season avg)2.00

Win streak (best this season)0

xG for (recent avg)0.93

xG against (recent avg)0.96

Elo strength rating1333

Players out1

Beşiktaş

Form (last 5)

LAmed (A) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WMarseille (H) 4–1 · 17/09/2026WErzurumspor FK (H) 3–0 · 11/09/2026WFenerbahçe (A) 2–1 · 05/09/2026WÇorum FK (H) 6–2 · 31/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)0.30

Win streak (best this season)5

xG for (recent avg)1.66

xG against (recent avg)0.72

Elo strength rating1360

Players out3

1899 HoffenheimBeşiktaş

LHamburger SV (H) 2–3 · 10/10/2026 LSC Paderborn 07 (A) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 LOFI (A) 0–2 · 17/09/2026WVfB Stuttgart (H) 2–1 · 12/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (H) 2–3 · 05/09/2026

LAmed (A) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WMarseille (H) 4–1 · 17/09/2026WErzurumspor FK (H) 3–0 · 11/09/2026WFenerbahçe (A) 2–1 · 05/09/2026WÇorum FK (H) 6–2 · 31/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

0.00

1.70

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.00

0.30

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.93

1.66

xG against (recent avg)

0.96

0.72

Elo strength rating

1333

1360

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

1899 Hoffenheim

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Beşiktaş

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Europa League

1899 Hoffenheim

Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Beşiktaş

2nd best defence (0.30 conceded/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%) Best clean sheets (5)

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

1899 Hoffenheim at home · Beşiktaş away — the split that matters for this fixture.

1899 Hoffenheim (home)

Played0

Goals scored (avg)0.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Beşiktaş (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–1L

W 2

L 1

Played3

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.30

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

1899 Hoffenheim (home)Beşiktaş (away)

W 2

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.00

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

0.00

0.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

8.2%

2–1

5.8%

2–0

5.1%

3–1

2.1%

3–0

1.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

1899 Hoffenheim

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Hamburger SV	Home	2–3	L
20/09	SC Paderborn 07	Away	1–3	L
17/09	OFI	Away	0–2	L
12/09	VfB Stuttgart	Home	2–1	W
05/09	Borussia Dortmund	Home	2–3	L

Beşiktaş

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
20/09	Amed	Away	2–3	L
17/09	Marseille	Home	4–1	W
11/09	Erzurumspor FK	Home	3–0	W
05/09	Fenerbahçe	Away	2–1	W
31/08	Çorum FK	Home	6–2	W

📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Europa League

1899 Hoffenheim #29 · 0 pts — Beşiktaş #4 · 3 pts

1899 Hoffenheim

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L

L 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)0.00

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score1

Yellow cards3

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.93

xG against (avg)0.96

Corners for (avg)6.70

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Beşiktaş

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L

W 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)0.30

Clean sheets5

Failed to score1

Yellow cards12

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.66

xG against (avg)0.72

Corners for (avg)7.60

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

1899 HoffenheimBeşiktaş

L 1

W 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.00

1.70

Goals conceded (avg)

2.00

0.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.93

1.66

xG against (avg)

0.96

0.72

Corners for (avg)

6.70

7.60

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

1899 Hoffenheim

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Beşiktaş

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

1899 Hoffenheim

❌ L. Engelns — Off the roster

Beşiktaş

❌ C. Keles — Off the roster
❌ M. Rashica — Off the roster
❌ L. Trossard — Heel Injury

More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws