Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon

Next match: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 3 β€’ SNP Arena β€’ β›… 10.2Β°C, 4 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 76% 35% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 70% 70.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 84% 55% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 53.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-2 62% 6.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 58% 26.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.1 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 55.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.47 – 1.58 Lyon Β· expected total 3.05

🧠 Match Preview

Hoffenheim host Lyon at the SNP Arena on Thursday night with the two clubs in very different European moods. The visitors sit 8th in the League Stage on 6 points from 2 games, while the Germans are 30th with 0 points from 2 and badly need something to keep their campaign alive.

The model leans toward the away side, giving Lyon a 35 percent win probability at 76 percent confidence, with the double chance covering the draw and away win at 70.8 percent. Form backs that up: Lyon arrive on LWWDW, Hoffenheim on LLLWL. The goal numbers point to an open game β€” recent expected goals read 2.01 for Hoffenheim and 1.82 for Lyon, with match lambdas of 1.4651 and 1.5836. Both teams to score lands at 55 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 53.8 percent, and corners Over 9.5 at 55.4 percent with 11.1 expected. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 8.73 percent, followed by 0-1 at 6.42 and 0-2 at 5.96.

Where might value hide? The draw is priced by the model at just 26.7 percent with 58 percent confidence, so the away win or the double chance is the cleaner route. Hoffenheim's injury list (L. Engelns, A. Hajdari, P. Wimmer) is lighter than Lyon's five absentees, including L. Openda and N. Tagliafico, which is the main argument against the model's away lean. The honest caveat: three of the last three head-to-heads finished 2-2, 2-2 and 3-3, so this fixture has a habit of refusing to follow the script.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

1899 Hoffenheim

Form (last 5)
LHamburger SV (H) 2–3 Β· 10/10/2026LSC Paderborn 07 (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LOFI (A) 0–2 Β· 17/09/2026WVfB Stuttgart (H) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (H) 2–3 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.93
xG against (recent avg)0.96
Elo strength rating1315
Players out3

Lyon

Form (last 5)
LLens (A) 1–2 Β· 09/10/2026WRennes (H) 4–0 Β· 19/09/2026WAnderlecht (A) 2–1 Β· 16/09/2026DParis FC (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAuxerre (H) 3–1 Β· 04/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.54
xG against (recent avg)0.89
Elo strength rating1940
Players out5
1899 HoffenheimLyon
LHamburger SV (H) 2–3 Β· 10/10/2026LSC Paderborn 07 (A) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LOFI (A) 0–2 Β· 17/09/2026WVfB Stuttgart (H) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026LBorussia Dortmund (H) 2–3 Β· 05/09/2026
LLens (A) 1–2 Β· 09/10/2026WRennes (H) 4–0 Β· 19/09/2026WAnderlecht (A) 2–1 Β· 16/09/2026DParis FC (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAuxerre (H) 3–1 Β· 04/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.00
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.93
1.54
xG against (recent avg)
0.96
0.89
Elo strength rating
1315
1940
Players out
3
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

1899 Hoffenheim

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Lyon

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

1899 Hoffenheim

Best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Lyon

3rd best BTTS rate (67%)

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

1899 Hoffenheim at home Β· Lyon away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

1899 Hoffenheim (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Lyon (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
1899 Hoffenheim (home)Lyon (away)
W 1
Played
0
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
1.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
6.8%
0–1
5%
0–2
4.6%
1–3
3.6%
2–3
2.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

1899 Hoffenheim 0 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Lyon 0 wins Β· avg 4.7 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 3

3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
07 Nov 2024 1899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Lyon UEFA Europa League
07 Nov 2018 Lyon 2–2 1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Champions League
23 Oct 2018 1899 Hoffenheim 3–3 Lyon UEFA Champions League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

1899 Hoffenheim

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Hamburger SV Home 2–3 L
20/09 SC Paderborn 07 Away 1–3 L
17/09 OFI Away 0–2 L
12/09 VfB Stuttgart Home 2–1 W
05/09 Borussia Dortmund Home 2–3 L

Lyon

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Lens Away 1–2 L
19/09 Rennes Home 4–0 W
16/09 Anderlecht Away 2–1 W
12/09 Paris FC Away 0–0 D
04/09 Auxerre Home 3–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

1899 Hoffenheim #30 Β· 0 pts β€”  Lyon #8 Β· 6 pts

1899 Hoffenheim

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.93
xG against (avg)0.96
Corners for (avg)6.70
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Lyon

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.54
xG against (avg)0.89
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
1899 HoffenheimLyon
L 2
W 2
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
3
2
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.93
1.54
xG against (avg)
0.96
0.89
Corners for (avg)
6.70
4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

1899 Hoffenheim

0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Lyon

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

1899 Hoffenheim

  • ❌ L. Engelns β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ A. Hajdari β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ P. Wimmer β€” Thigh Injury

Lyon

  • ❌ Abner Vinicius β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Hamdani β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Openda β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ M. Ouedraogo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Tagliafico β€” Knee Injury

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws