Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:45 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ AFAS Stadion β€’ β›… 15.1Β°C, 15 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 53.4% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 37.7% Β· Edge +16.9 pp
Best odds 2.65 Pinnacle 2.65Bet365 2.62Betano 2.62
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 6.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 90% 73.4% 1.33 1xBet 76.7% -3.3 pp
Double Chance 1X 71% 72.3% 1.09 Betano 91.3% -19 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.1% 1.95 William Hill 49.4% +1.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 53.4% 2.65 Pinnacle 36.5% +16.9 pp
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.7% 9.00 Bet365 5.6% +5.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.1% 1.85 Betano 52.8% +1.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.29 – 0.90 Hapoel Beer Sheva Β· expected total 2.19

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Beer Sheva at the AFAS Stadion on Thursday night, with both sides still hunting their first Europa League win of this league-stage campaign. The hosts sit 26th on 0 points from 1 game, while the visitors are 20th with 1 point from 1 played, so the stakes are simple: AZ need a home result to kick-start their European run, and Beer Sheva would happily take a point back to Israel.

The model leans heavily toward the Dutch side. AZ's recent expected goals sit at 1.97, and their attacking projection of 1.2899 dwarfs Beer Sheva's 0.9029. Form is patchy on both sides β€” AZ arrive on LWLDW, the visitors on WDWLD β€” but the underlying numbers point one way. AZ's injury list is lighter (D. Kasius, S. Resink, J. Zoet) than Beer Sheva's, who are missing seven players including D. Biton, D. T. Diop, R. Levy, Lucas Ventura, E. Peretz, I. Rotman and Y. Stoyanov.

The headline tip is a home win at 73.4% probability, priced at 1.33 β€” short, but the confidence rating of 90 underlines how one-sided this looks. Double chance 1X comes in at 72.3%. Where value may hide is in the goals markets: BTTS No is rated 51.1% and available at 1.95, while Under 2.5 lands at 53.4% at odds of 2.65. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 13.1%, with 2-0 at 9.29% and 2-1 at 8.39%. Corners Over 9.5 is projected at 10.5 with a 54.1% probability.

The honest caveat: AZ's recent form is far from convincing, and with no head-to-head history to lean on, a low-scoring, cagey European night could easily frustrate the favourite backers.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

AZ Alkmaar

Form (last 5)
LFeyenoord (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026WTelstar (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026LSunderland (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026DWillem II (H) 1–1 Β· 11/09/2026WHeerenveen (A) 3–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.97
xG against (recent avg)1.32
Elo strength rating1337
Players out3

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Form (last 5)
WIroni Kiryat Shmona (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026DDinamo Zagreb (H) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WHapoel Petah Tikva (A) 2–0 Β· 13/09/2026LMaccabi Tel Aviv (H) 1–4 Β· 07/09/2026DHapoel Haifa (H) 2–2 Β· 02/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.00
xG against (recent avg)0.00
Elo strength rating1348
Players out7
AZ AlkmaarHapoel Beer Sheva
LFeyenoord (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026WTelstar (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026LSunderland (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026DWillem II (H) 1–1 Β· 11/09/2026WHeerenveen (A) 3–2 Β· 06/09/2026
WIroni Kiryat Shmona (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026DDinamo Zagreb (H) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WHapoel Petah Tikva (A) 2–0 Β· 13/09/2026LMaccabi Tel Aviv (H) 1–4 Β· 07/09/2026DHapoel Haifa (H) 2–2 Β· 02/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.97
0.00
xG against (recent avg)
1.32
0.00
Elo strength rating
1337
1348
Players out
3
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

AZ Alkmaar

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

AZ Alkmaar at home Β· Hapoel Beer Sheva away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

AZ Alkmaar (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Hapoel Beer Sheva (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
AZ Alkmaar (home)Hapoel Beer Sheva (away)
Played
0
0
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.7%
2–0
7.6%
2–1
6.9%
3–0
3.3%
3–1
2.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Feyenoord Away 0–2 L
20/09 Telstar Home 1–0 W
16/09 Sunderland Away 0–1 L
11/09 Willem II Home 1–1 D
06/09 Heerenveen Away 3–2 W

Hapoel Beer Sheva

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Ironi Kiryat Shmona Home 1–0 W
16/09 Dinamo Zagreb Home 0–0 D
13/09 Hapoel Petah Tikva Away 2–0 W
07/09 Maccabi Tel Aviv Home 1–4 L
02/09 Hapoel Haifa Home 2–2 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

AZ Alkmaar #26 Β· 0 pts β€”  Hapoel Beer Sheva #20 Β· 1 pts

AZ Alkmaar

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.97
xG against (avg)1.32
Corners for (avg)6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.00
xG against (avg)0.00
Corners for (avg)5.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
AZ AlkmaarHapoel Beer Sheva
L 1
D 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.97
0.00
xG against (avg)
1.32
0.00
Corners for (avg)
6.20
5.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

AZ Alkmaar

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

AZ Alkmaar

  • ❌ D. Kasius β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ S. Resink β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Zoet β€” Off the roster

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • ❌ D. Biton β€” Heart Problems
  • ❌ D. T. Diop β€” Red Card
  • ❌ R. Levy β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ Lucas Ventura β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Peretz β€” Red Card
  • ❌ I. Rotman β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Y. Stoyanov β€” Off the roster

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws