Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace
Next match: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 3 • Besiktas Park • ⛅ 14.9°C, 6 km/h partly cloudy
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 86% | 63% | — | — | — | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | 79% | 81.8% | — | — | — | — |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 50% | — | — | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 48.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 69% | 10.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 61% | 52.7% | — | — | — | — |
⚽ Model expected goals: Beşiktaş 1.73 – 0.77 Crystal Palace · expected total 2.49
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily home: a 63% win probability at 86 confidence, with the double chance 1X at 81.8%. Beşiktaş arrive on WLWWW form and an expected-goals split of 1.7271 to 0.7675, backed by recent xG of 2.18 against Palace's 1.1. Palace's WLDWL run and a lengthy injury list including Mateta, Lerma, Henderson, Chilwell and Doucoure make the away task harder, though Beşiktaş are without Rashica, Keles, Cerny, Vlahovic and Trossard.
The headline tip is a home win, and the correct-score model points to 1-0 at 10.8%, with 2-0 (12.33), 2-1 (9.47), 3-0 (7.1) and 3-1 (5.45) close behind. BTTS No sits at 50%, while Over 2.5 is only 48.1% — a coin-flip the market may overprice. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 at 52.7% against an expected 9.8.
Value likely hides in the 1X double chance and the unders side of goals, where the model is less bullish than the scoreline suggests. The honest caveat: Beşiktaş's own five absentees and Palace's low xG sample mean the 63% home probability carries real variance, so staking should reflect that uncertainty rather than the confidence figure alone.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Europa League
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Beşiktaş at home · Crystal Palace away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Beşiktaş (home)
Crystal Palace (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
📈 Recent Form
Beşiktaş
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Kocaelispor | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 20/09 | Amed | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 17/09 | Marseille | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 11/09 | Erzurumspor FK | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Fenerbahçe | Away | 2–1 | W |
Crystal Palace
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Nottingham Forest | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 03/10 | Bristol City | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Leeds | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 17/09 | Lech Poznan | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Ipswich | Home | 2–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Europa League
Beşiktaş #4 · 6 pts — Crystal Palace #15 · 3 pts
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Beşiktaş
- ❌ V. Cerny — Muscle Injury
- ❌ C. Keles — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Rashica — Injury
- ❌ D. Vlahovic — Illness
- ❌ L. Trossard — Heel Injury
Crystal Palace
- ❌ C. Doucoure — Off the roster
- ❌ Z. Gozo — Off the roster
- ❌ E. Guessand — Off the roster
- ❌ D. Henderson — Foot Injury
- ❌ J. Lerma — Off the roster
- ❌ J. Mateta — Hamstring Injury
- ❌ C. Riad — Knee Injury
- ❌ B. Chilwell — Inactive
- ❌ T. Tomiyasu — Calf Injury
More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws