Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace host Nottingham Forest at Selhurst Park on Sunday with both clubs stuck in the bottom half and desperate for breathing room. Palace sit 15th on 4 points from 5 games, Forest a place and a point better off in 13th, so this is a scrappy mid-table six-pointer rather than a showcase.

The model leans home. Palace's recent expected goals of 1.54 against Forest's 1.31 points to a modest edge, though the match-level goal expectations are far tighter at 0.9943 for the hosts and 0.8359 for the visitors. Form reads DWLWW for Palace against LWDDL for Forest, and the head-to-head is almost comically tight: 1-1 in four of the last five meetings, with Forest's solitary 1-0 win in October 2024 the only exception. Injuries bite both squads, with Palace missing J. Mateta, C. Riad, I. Sarr, A. Disasi, D. Henderson and E. Nketiah, while Forest are without N. Savona, R. Yates, I. Sangare and N. Milenkovic.

The headline tip is a home win at 37.1 percent with confidence of 74, but the smarter angle may be the double chance 1X at 71.4 percent, or the draw at 34.4 percent with confidence of 78. Under 2.5 goals lands at 51.1 percent, BTTS No at 52.5 percent, and the correct-score model favours 1-0 at 12.1 percent, with 1-0 also topping the score list at 14.62. Corners look low too, Under 9.5 at 69.2 percent against an expected 7.2.

The honest caveat: 37.1 percent is not a strong win probability, and with six Palace absentees and a fixture history drenched in draws, backing the outright home win carries real risk. Compare the model's numbers against your bookmaker's odds before committing.