San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys
Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β’ 22:15 UTC+3 β’ Clausura - 14 β’ Estadio Pedro Bidegain
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 80% | 45.4% | β | β | β | β |
| Double Chance | 1X | 74% | 75.8% | β | β | β | β |
| BTTS | No | 85% | 56% | β | β | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 87% | 60.3% | β | β | β | β |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 73% | 12.9% | β | β | β | β |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.3 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 64% | 54.8% | β | β | β | β |
β½ Model expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.25 β 0.76 Newells Old Boys Β· expected total 2.01
π§ Match Preview
San Lorenzo host Newell's Old Boys at the Estadio Pedro Bidegain on Sunday, with the home side sitting 7th on 22 points from 16 games and the visitors 14th on 15 points from the same number of matches. The gap in the table gives San Lorenzo both the incentive and the edge here.
The model leans clearly toward the home side, giving San Lorenzo a 45.4 percent win probability at 80 percent confidence, while double chance 1X lands at 75.8 percent. Recent form is mixed for both: San Lorenzo arrive on WLLDW, Newell's on LDWDD. The expected goals split is telling, with San Lorenzo at 1.2531 against Newell's at 0.7573, though the recent samples flip that picture slightly (0.77 home, 1.29 away), which is worth noting. No injuries are reported on either side. The head-to-head is tight and low-scoring, with a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 2-2 in the last five meetings.
For bettors, the cleanest angles are the home win and the 1X cover, and the goals markets point the same direction: Under 2.5 at 60.3 percent and BTTS No at 56 percent. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 12.9 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 next in line. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 54.8 percent with an expected 8.3.
The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds were provided, so we cannot confirm where the value actually sits against the market. The recent xG figures also hint Newell's are creating more than their season numbers suggest, so the home win is not a formality.
The model leans clearly toward the home side, giving San Lorenzo a 45.4 percent win probability at 80 percent confidence, while double chance 1X lands at 75.8 percent. Recent form is mixed for both: San Lorenzo arrive on WLLDW, Newell's on LDWDD. The expected goals split is telling, with San Lorenzo at 1.2531 against Newell's at 0.7573, though the recent samples flip that picture slightly (0.77 home, 1.29 away), which is worth noting. No injuries are reported on either side. The head-to-head is tight and low-scoring, with a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 2-2 in the last five meetings.
For bettors, the cleanest angles are the home win and the 1X cover, and the goals markets point the same direction: Under 2.5 at 60.3 percent and BTTS No at 56 percent. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 12.9 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 next in line. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 54.8 percent with an expected 8.3.
The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds were provided, so we cannot confirm where the value actually sits against the market. The recent xG figures also hint Newell's are creating more than their season numbers suggest, so the home win is not a formality.
Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
San Lorenzo
Form (last 5)
WDeportivo Riestra (H) 1β0 Β· 11/10/2026LDefensa Y Justicia (A) 0β3 Β· 03/10/2026LBoca Juniors (H) 0β2 Β· 20/09/2026DIndependiente (A) 1β1 Β· 13/09/2026WTalleres Cordoba (H) 1β0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.54
xG against (recent avg)0.74
Elo strength rating1337
Newells Old Boys
Form (last 5)
LGimnasia M. (A) 0β1 Β· 12/10/2026DLanus (H) 0β0 Β· 03/10/2026WPlatense (A) 1β0 Β· 20/09/2026DVelez Sarsfield (H) 1β1 Β· 11/09/2026DRosario Central (A) 1β1 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.85
xG against (recent avg)0.56
Elo strength rating1329
San LorenzoNewells Old Boys
WDeportivo Riestra (H) 1β0 Β· 11/10/2026LDefensa Y Justicia (A) 0β3 Β· 03/10/2026LBoca Juniors (H) 0β2 Β· 20/09/2026DIndependiente (A) 1β1 Β· 13/09/2026WTalleres Cordoba (H) 1β0 Β· 05/09/2026
LGimnasia M. (A) 0β1 Β· 12/10/2026DLanus (H) 0β0 Β· 03/10/2026WPlatense (A) 1β0 Β· 20/09/2026DVelez Sarsfield (H) 1β1 Β· 11/09/2026DRosario Central (A) 1β1 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.54
0.85
xG against (recent avg)
0.74
0.56
Elo strength rating
1337
1329
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
San Lorenzo
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6
Newells Old Boys
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
3/6
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π League Benchmarks β Liga Profesional
San Lorenzo
2nd best clean sheets (14)
Newells Old Boys
Worst Over 2.5 rate (0%)
Rank among 30 Liga Profesional teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
π Home vs Away Records
San Lorenzo at home Β· Newells Old Boys away β the split that matters for this fixture.
San Lorenzo (home)
WinsβDrawsβLosses7Wβ2Dβ5L
W 7
D 2
L 5
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets8
Failed to score3
Newells Old Boys (away)
WinsβDrawsβLosses3Wβ4Dβ7L
W 3
D 4
L 7
Played14
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets2
Failed to score6
San Lorenzo (home)Newells Old Boys (away)
W 7
D 2
L 5
W 3
D 4
L 7
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.60
Clean sheets
8
2
Failed to score
3
6
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Newells Old Boys 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· San Lorenzo 2 wins Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Newells Old Boys | 0β0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 27 Jul 2024 | San Lorenzo | 1β1 | Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 04 Mar 2024 | Newells Old Boys | 2β2 | San Lorenzo | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 07 Oct 2023 | San Lorenzo | 0β3 | Newells Old Boys | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 20 Mar 2023 | Newells Old Boys | 1β0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 09 Jun 2022 | Newells Old Boys | 0β0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 27 Apr 2022 | Newells Old Boys | 1β2 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 12 Dec 2021 | San Lorenzo | 3β2 | Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 04 Feb 2020 | Newells Old Boys | 1β0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
π Recent Form
San Lorenzo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Deportivo Riestra | Home | 1β0 | W |
| 03/10 | Defensa Y Justicia | Away | 0β3 | L |
| 20/09 | Boca Juniors | Home | 0β2 | L |
| 13/09 | Independiente | Away | 1β1 | D |
| 05/09 | Talleres Cordoba | Home | 1β0 | W |
Newells Old Boys
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Gimnasia M. | Away | 0β1 | L |
| 03/10 | Lanus | Home | 0β0 | D |
| 20/09 | Platense | Away | 1β0 | W |
| 11/09 | Velez Sarsfield | Home | 1β1 | D |
| 06/09 | Rosario Central | Away | 1β1 | D |
π Season Comparison β Liga Profesional
San Lorenzo #7 Β· 22 pts β Newells Old Boys #14 Β· 15 pts
San Lorenzo
WinsβDrawsβLosses5Wβ7Dβ4L
W 5
D 7
L 4
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets14
Failed to score12
Yellow cards71
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.54
xG against (avg)0.74
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
Newells Old Boys
WinsβDrawsβLosses3Wβ6Dβ7L
W 3
D 6
L 7
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets7
Failed to score10
Yellow cards62
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.85
xG against (avg)0.56
Corners for (avg)2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1
San LorenzoNewells Old Boys
W 5
D 7
L 4
W 3
D 6
L 7
Played
16
16
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.30
Clean sheets
14
7
Failed to score
12
10
Yellow cards
71
62
Red cards
5
3
xG for (avg)
0.54
0.85
xG against (avg)
0.74
0.56
Corners for (avg)
3.20
2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
2/1
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
San Lorenzo
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Newells Old Boys
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Liga Profesional predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws